Below-average state
Published March 31, 2016
Editorial by Greensboro News-Record, March 31, 2016.
North Carolina is a state where most of its parts are below average. A couple of recent reports dramatically illustrate our uneven circumstances.
First from the Census Bureau, which released its 2015 county population estimates last week. Although North Carolina’s overall population grew by 5.3 percent from 2010 to 2015, 48 of its 100 counties lost population.
This is devastating to many of our state’s small towns and rural counties. Rockingham County lost 2 percent of its population during the first half of the current decade, and the bleeding may increase when the Miller-Coors brewery in Eden closes later this year.
The impact isn’t isolated. Unemployed workers may look for jobs in Guilford County, which saw a population gain of 6 percent but slow job growth.
Population losses are spreading throughout the state. In the first five years of the previous decade, 2000 to 2005, only 14 counties declined, according to Rebecca Tippett, director of Carolina Demography at the UNC-Chapel Hill Population Center.
Population growth also is more intensely concentrated. Nearly half of the 2010-2015 increase occurred in just two counties — Wake and Mecklenburg. Both now exceed 1 million residents.
The other report, from the North Carolina Justice Center, highlights economic disparities. Among its most startling findings: 63 counties exceeded the state’s overall poverty rate of 17.2 percent in 2015; and in 89 counties, the median hourly wage was less than the state average of $15.63.
Two neighboring counties, Guilford and Rockingham, show significant differences — although Guilford is far from the state’s strongest county and Rockingham far from the weakest.
Jobs: In December, 13,586 people were looking for work in Guilford County, and there were 16,316 job openings. In Rockingham, 2,497 people were looking for work but only 1,301 jobs were open. In Guilford, 11,478 more people were employed in December than eight years earlier. In Rockingham, there were 1,643 fewer people employed.
Wages: The average wage in Guilford last year was $16.16; in Rockingham, it was $14.73.
Life expectancy: 79 in Guilford; 75.8 in Rockingham.
High school graduation rate: 89.3 percent in Guilford; 81.4 percent in Rockingham.
Contrasts like this exist across the state and tell a clear story: Opportunities are poor in some counties. That contributes to declining population, which depresses conditions even more.
The question is whether North Carolina can prevent even more counties from slipping backward in the next five or 10 years.
One solution is taking a regional approach to economic development. A good example is the Greensboro-Randolph Megasite under development in northern Randolph County with support from Greensboro. If it attracts a major industrial client, it will provide a much-needed boost to the entire region.
The state also should end policies that make problems worse. Cutting unemployment benefits, eliminating the earned-income tax credit, tightening eligibility for food assistance and denying Medicaid expansion have torn important safety nets that could help sustain poor communities until conditions improve.
More answers are needed. North Carolina can’t progress as long as most of it drags below average.
