Busy election year starts Tuesday

by Jim Morrill, Charlotte Observer, November 29, 2015.

North Carolina kicks off a busy new election season Tuesday and, at least in the presidential race, forecasters expect it to favor Republicans.

With earlier-than-ever primaries, filing for office opens Tuesday and runs through Dec. 21.

And though you’re probably still in the middle of holiday shopping, early voting in the March 15 primaries starts in just 93 days.

Lawmakers who moved up the primaries from May hope it will make the state a player in deciding the presidential nominees of both major parties.

For the first time since 2008, N.C. voters will see races for U.S. Senate and governor in addition to president in what some call “a triple witching” election.

The accelerated primary schedule already has triggered a flurry of retirement and campaign announcements.

“Overall it’s going to mean a fairly short primary season,” says David McLennan, a political scientist at Raleigh’s William Peace University. “So what we may see is fewer candidates running in the primary but a longer, more expensive general election.”

In the past two presidential elections, North Carolina has been a swing state – and one of the closest battlegrounds. In 2008 Democrat Barack Obama became the first Democrat to carry the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976 when he won by 14,000 votes. Republican Mitt Romney carried it by 92,000 votes four years later.

Now the major national forecasters expect it to lean Republican in 2016, no longer among the half-dozen or so “toss-up” states.

“Our theory is that North Carolina Democrats sort of peaked in 2008 and then slid back some in 2012,” says analyst Charlie Cook of Washington. “And I don’t think it’s going to be as competitive, as much a target, in ’16 as it was in ’12 or ’08.”

Next year voters will choose everything from president to county commissioner to judge. Here’s a look at some of the major races.

President

Though N.C. lawmakers moved up the primary to give the state a louder voice in the presidential selection process, half the 50 states will have held their contests before North Carolinians vote on March 15.

Even so, the races – especially the crowded Republican primary – could still be up for grabs.

“This thing’s going to go awfully deep in the process,” Cook says. “I can’t even imagine a set of circumstances where this race will be settled in April.”

That means candidates could be spending more time and more money in North Carolina than usual. Even more if they use the Charlotte TV market to reach voters in South Carolina before that state’s February primaries.

Recent state polls have shown Hillary Clinton leading Democratic candidates and Donald Trump and Ben Carson sitting atop the GOP field.

The outcome of the general election will depend largely on who the candidates are, and whether there’s a major third-party or independent candidate. But for now, pundits say they expect it to be red on Nov. 8.

“The balance in North Carolina is very close, it could be changing,” says University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “But based on what we know (now), the safest place in anybody’s universe of projections is ‘lean Republican.’ ”

U.S. Senate

Democrats have lined up strong challengers to GOP incumbents for Senate in several states, according to analyst Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report. North Carolina is not one of them.

“North Carolina may be the only state where Democrats have struggled to find a first-tier candidate,” she wrote this month on her blog.

Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is running for a third term in a year when his party is defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs. Democrats, who now have 46 of the Senate’s 100 seats. If they elect a vice president who’s able to cast a tie-breaking vote, they need to pick up four seats for control.

The Democratic field so far includes Durham businessman Kevin Griffin, Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey and former lawmaker Deborah Ross of Raleigh. In a poll last month by the Democratic leaning Public Policy Polling, Ross was within four points of Burr.

Burr, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, is typically low-profile. And his seat has a history of flipping. In 2010, he became the first incumbent to hold the seat to be re-elected since Democrat Sam Ervin in 1968.

“Burr is always considered one of the more vulnerable senators,” McLennan says. “But he wins.”

Congress

Republicans almost certainly keep the 10 of 13 congressional seats they currently hold, and incumbents will be strongly favored in most.

The campaign of second-term U.S. Rep. Robert Pittenger could hinge on the outcomes of federal probes.

The FBI and IRS are investigating the Charlotte Republican’s family business, Pittenger Land Investments. Pittenger, who has said he’s no longer associated with the company, himself asked the House Ethics Committee to look into whether he violated any guidelines. The committee is deferring to the Justice Department investigation.

In a recent letter to the media, Pittenger’s attorney Ken Bell said a review of documents has shown nothing that would suggest criminal conduct by Pittenger or his former company.

Governor

Some analysts call the governor’s race a toss-up. It’s expected to be one of the state’s hardest fought and most expensive.

Republican Gov. Pat McCrory is running for a second term. The Democratic primary includes Attorney General Roy Cooper and Durham businessman Ken Spaulding.

Through June Cooper had a war chest of over $3 million, more than McCrory and far more than Spaulding.

McCrory and Cooper both have disappointed some members of their own parties.

McCrory, a former Charlotte mayor, has made few friends among Republican critics of the Interstate 77 toll project in Mecklenburg County. They want him to stop it. And Cooper angered some Democrats by agreeing with the governor’s call to halt the influx of Syrian refugees into the state.

General Assembly

Democrats will try again to chip away at Republican control of the General Assembly. The GOP has veto-proof margins in the House and in the Senate.

A flurry of announced legislative retirements includes veteran GOP Sen. Bob Rucho of Matthews.

One Mecklenburg County race expected to be close: the District 92 seat of Republican Rep. Charles Jeter of Huntersville. The district has more Democrats than Republicans and Jeter has twice won by narrow margins over a weak opponent.

But overall, Republicans are expected to maintain control.

“There are some individual legislative races that could end up more competitive than might be expected,” says Joe Stewart, executive director of the N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation, which tracks legislative races. “But the bottom line is, it seems highly unlikely that Republicans would lose control of either the House or the Senate.”