Civitas Poll: Tillis leading Hagan

by Frances de Luca, John W. Pope Civitas, May 29, 2014.

RALEIGH – The latest Civitas Institute Poll shows state House Speaker Thom Tillis, the Republican candidate, leading Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan in the race for the U.S. Senate.

Tillis leads Hagan 39 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh the choice of 8 percent of the 600 registered NC voters polled. When asked their preference without Haugh in the lineup, Tillis led 46 to 41 percent.

“Tillis has a slight lead over Sen. Hagan,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “What must be more troubling for the Senator’s camp is that 55 percent of voters say it is time for someone new while only 35 percent say she deserves reelection. Much can happen during the campaign, but Sen. Hagan faces challenges, including voters’ underlying doubts about keeping her in office.”

The poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters was conducted May 20-22, and has an error margin of plus/minus 4 percent. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were contacted on cellphones.

Text of questions:*

“Now, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of…

                      TOTAL       TOTAL                           VERY        SMWT          SMWT       VERY                         HRD OF/                       NEVER

                       FAV            UNFAV                         FAV            FAV              UNFAV     UNFAV                       NO OPIN                      HRD OF

Barack Obama

5/14      45%       52%                      29%       16%               9%         43%                      2%                         –

4/14      48%       48%                      29%       20%            10%       38%                      3%                         –

3/14      46%       52%                      29%       17%               9%         43%                      2%                         –

1/14      46%       50%                      27%       19%                9%         42%                      3%                         –

Pat McCrory

5/14      48%       38%                      18%       30%              13%       25%                      10%                      4%

4/14      44%       42%                      17%       27%               14%       28%                      11%                      3%

3/14      44%       46%                      20%       24%             14%       32%                      9%                         1%

1/14      43%       44%                      18%       25%              15%       28%                      11%                      2%

“Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of …”

                      Total          Total                            Strong         Smwt        Smwt        Strong                           Don’t                             Refused

                   Approve  Disapprove                 Approve      Approve     Disapp.     Disapp                          Know

“… the job Barack Obama is doing as President?”

5/14      45%       54%                      23%       22%       11%         43%                      1%                         –

4/14      47%       50%                      24%       23%       10%        40%                      3%                         –

3/14      46%       53%                      24%       22%       9%          44%                      1%                         –

1/14      45%       52%                      25%       19%        10%        42%                      3%                         –

“… the job Kay Hagan is doing as U.S. Senator?”

5/14      45%       48%                      20%       25%       14%       34%                      7%                         –

4/14      44%       46%                      15%       28%       15%       31%                      11%                      –

3/14      44%       44%                      15%       29%       14%       30%                      13%                      –

1/14      38%       45%                      15%       23%       17%       28%                      16%                      –

“And if the election for U.S. Senate and Congress were being held today, would you rather… ”

3/14      4/14      5/14

49%       48%       50%       Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs.

43%       42%       40%       Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s programs and policies.

7%          9%          10%       Don’t Know/Neither/Other

“Has Kay Hagan performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election, or is it time to give someone new a chance to do a better job?”

35%       Total Deserves Re-Election

55%       Total Time for Someone New

25%       Definitely Deserves Re-election

11%       Probably Deserves Re-election

12%       Probably Time for Someone New

44%       Definitely Time for Someone New

9%          Undecided/Don’t Know/More Info Needed

“If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today for whom would you vote between …”

39%       Thom Tillis, the Republican

36%       Kay Hagan, the Democrat

8%          Sean Haugh, the Libertarian

15%       Lean/ Undecided

31%       DEFINITELY TILLIS                           4%          DEFINITELY HAUGH

8%          PROBABLY TILLIS                             5%          PROBABLY HAUGH

2%          LEAN TILLIS                                       1%          LEAN HAUGH

27%       DEFINITELY HAGAN                        10%       HARD UNDECIDED

9%          PROBABLY HAGAN                          1%          OTHER (Specify)

1%          LEAN HAGAN                                    1%          REFUSED

“Suppose there were only two candidates … for whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican, and Kay Hagan, the Democrat?”

46%       Total Tillis

41%       Total Hagan

12%       Lean/ Undecided

37%       Definitely Tillis

10%       Probably Tillis

1%          Lean Tillis

9%          Undecided

2%          Lean Hagan

10%       Probably Hagan

31%       Definitely Hagan

“On Election Day in November, what would you say would be your primary motive to vote? Will you be more motivated to vote based on …”

3/14      4/14      5/14

33%       44%       41%       North Carolina-specific issues like state spending, education and specific state laws and policies.

53%       48%       51%       National issues like ObamaCare, federal spending and borrowing, and foreign policy.

3%          2%          1%          Won’t be motivated

11%       6%          7%          Don’t Know/ Refused

*Due to rounding, figures may not total 100%

For more information, click on: May 2014 Politics Crosstabs.

This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted May 20-22, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

http://www.nccivitas.org/2014/civitas-poll-tillis-leading-hagan/