Could we see a more moderate GOP

by Patrick Gannon, The Insider, January 26, 2015.

What General Assembly will we get this year?

Will we continue to see a strong shift to the right, or will we get a more moderate version of Republican rule for the next two years?

We'll probably get a little bit of both.

Yes, we will continue to see a conservative movement in North Carolina. There will be little or no backtracking – unless court mandated – from the changes Republicans have made the past four years in control of state government.

Leaders in the House and Senate have made that clear, and the November elections ensured that Republicans once again have strong majorities in both chambers. So what they decide among themselves will find its way into law in one form or another.

But there's also a school of thought inside the GOP camp that says, "Hey, we've made some pretty dramatic changes these past four years. Let's let them simmer, let a little time pass and see how they shake out."

There will be Republicans who want to continue to cut corporate income taxes – and perhaps capital gains or other taxes. There will be others who want to make sure there's enough money to run the government, give teachers raises again and improve some state roads and buildings first.

There will be Republicans who want to continue down the path of conservative social change. Rep. Paul "Skip" Stam, a Wake County Republican, and others will support legislation to exempt magistrates and registers of deeds from performing gay marriages if they oppose them on religious grounds.

There will be others who want to leave social stuff alone after very controversial changes the past four years under GOP control, such as the constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman and changes aimed at restricting abortions.

House Speaker Tim Moore, a Cleveland County Republican, said most social issues have been addressed in the past four years of GOP leadership.

"So they're done," Moore said at a recent press conference. "I think we're at a position now where we can focus on governing, actually moving forward with managing the affairs of the state, working on our budget, trying to improve efficiencies."

We have a governor, Pat McCrory, up for re-election in 2016, who has shown at least strong hints of wanting to lead from the middle.

McCrory wants lawmakers to pass an undisclosed package of economic incentives to help attract more businesses to the state. Some conservative lawmakers in both chambers don't like incentives of any kind and will push back.

We have Democrats – and maybe a governor – who want to make more people eligible for Medicaid, but Republican leaders in both chambers who have said that's not going to happen.

We have a governor who wants to spend more on transportation projects, but strong fiscal conservatives in the General Assembly who may not want the state to accrue additional debt.

And there will be Democrats who simply want to be part of the legislative process, and Republicans who won't need them to get most of their priorities through the House and Senate.

Bills are now being filed in the House and Senate. Which ones will make it?

This year, your guess is as good as mine. Stay tuned.