Democrats hope to avoid further defections

by Colin Campbell, Charlotte Observer, January 13, 2015.

When a state House member from the Outer Banks changed his political party to unaffiliated last week, it represented one more blow for an endangered species at the legislature: the rural, moderate Democrat.

State Rep. Paul Tine left the Democratic Party just in time for the start of this year’s legislative session, which begins at 9 a.m. Wednesday. Republicans welcomed his switch and will allow him to meet with them in private meetings where they’ll discuss their legislative strategy and agenda.

Republicans are firmly in charge in Raleigh, having held supermajorities in both chambers after last year’s elections. Other Democrats haven’t ruled out following Tine’s lead, and some in the party have begun working hard to keep moderates inside the party’s tent.

Tine, a second-term member from Kitty Hawk, said his move makes sense in a state where more voters are registering as unaffiliated.

“Independent fits for me, and I think when you look at voter registration, it’s fitting for a lot of people,” he said. “I don’t expect that I’m starting a movement.”

Still, Tine’s new status as the legislature’s only unaffiliated member will be closely watched – both as he works with Republicans during the session and later as he seeks re-election in 2016.

“In theory, it sounds good to be an independent,” said Gary Pearce, a longtime Democratic strategist. “If you have a Democrat and a Republican opponent, the question is: Are you in the sweet spot or do you get slaughtered?”

Also up for debate: Will Tine have more influence as a junior member of the Republican caucus than he did in the minority party?

New Democratic group

One rural Democrat in the House, Rep. Ken Goodman of Rockingham, said he’s forming a new group of lawmakers this session – tentatively dubbed “Main Street Democrats” – that is “more centrist, that has a different agenda, where we can express ourselves as a group ... and hope that we can exert a little leverage.”

Goodman said he remains a Democrat and hopes he can move members in his party to the center while also influencing Republicans.

Tine and Goodman had been among about a half-dozen rural moderate Democrats – once a powerful force in state politics – still serving in the House. Just four years ago, more than a dozen House members fit that category.

Tine said he left because he’s a fiscal conservative who has become disenchanted with his party and believes he can “get more done” by joining Republicans.

Rep. Ken Waddell said he’s one who hasn’t ruled out a switch.

“I always keep my options open,” said Waddell, a Columbus County farmer. “Most of the constituents I have in my rural area are conservative Democrats that are somewhat dismayed with some of the positions that the national Democratic Party has taken.”

Waddell also says Democratic legislators need to broaden their appeal.

“Democrats always had a big tent,” he said. “We need to get back to that.”

House Democratic Leader Larry Hall says he doesn’t see huge differences among his caucus. Democrats – Tine included – have rarely split on major votes, he argues, and his goal this session is to “make sure people don’t get misinformed about what is happening” and perceive a divide.

Hall disagrees with Tine’s claim that becoming unaffiliated makes sense for his conservative-leaning district. “The most damaging policies that have hurt that district have been Republican policies,” Hall said, pointing to concerns about school funding and a hospital closing blamed on North Carolina’s refusal to expand Medicaid.

Looking ahead to 2016

With little power this session, Democratic Party leaders acknowledged they are also looking ahead to 2016, when they hope to regain more seats. Republicans hold 74 of the 120 seats in the House and 34 of the 50 in the Senate. Last year’s election saw only a few districts change hands. To avoid a repeat performance in the next round, Democrats say they must convince rural voters that they can address their economic troubles.

“Without a doubt, some of our top priorities will be to pick up seats outside of our urban areas,” said Rep. Grier Martin of Raleigh. “We feel optimistic about our chances in many of those rural areas.”

Goodman and others expressed less certainty, pointing to how legislative districts are drawn. Redistricting has bunched similar voters together and is seen as one reason for a decline in moderate lawmakers.

“The redrawing of the district lines pushed the Democratic Party to the left,” Goodman said.

He said the way districts are drawn leaves little incentive for compromise, as few legislators in either party are in danger of losing their seats.

“The Republicans do not have to run toward the center to get elected, and the Democrats don’t either,” Goodman said. “I think that’s bad for good government.”

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2015/01/13/v-print/5445560/democrats-hope-to-avoid-further.html