Governing by illusion in N.C.

Published February 1, 2015

by Ned Barnett, News and Observer, January 31, 2015.

The political contest in North Carolina is no longer between Democrats and Republicans. The Democrats have been vanquished, undone by their disorganization and lack of conviction and gerrymandered into irrelevance.

Now the contest is between Republicans and reality. And, for now, reality is losing.

That doesn’t mean reality will be overcome. It means an illusion is prevailing while the state’s true condition deteriorates.

The central illusion is that cutting taxes and state government spending will spur the economy and improve the lives of North Carolinians of all incomes. GOP leaders trumpet the state’s job growth and shrinking unemployment rate as indicators of how their policies are having an effect.

The economy is improving, yes, but it is being lifted by a national recovery, not by cutting off unemployment benefits or lowering taxes on the wealthy and profitable corporations.

And the unemployment rate is going down. But there’s more to it than one number. The reality is that the percentage of working-age North Carolinians who are participating in the labor force (59.8 percent) is at its lowest since January 1976. In 2014, the labor force actually contracted by 42,245 workers and is now smaller than it was in any month since January 2010.

It’s true that jobs have come back since the onset of the recession. The state had 1.2 percent more jobs at the end of 2014 than it did when the recession began in December 2007. But that job growth has not kept up with the state’s population increase. John Quinterno, whose Chapel Hill group South by North Strategies analyzes labor trends, reports that, “Depending on the assumptions used, North Carolina is anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000 payroll jobs short of the number it should have added since late 2007 to accommodate population growth.”

The main effect of Republican tax cuts has been to starve a state budget already lean from years of recession-induced austerity. State revenues are expected to be at least $200 million below projections this fiscal year and possibly more than $1 billion below what the state would have collected had taxes not been “reformed.” Republicans argue that $200 million isn’t much given the state’s $21 billion budget. But it’s a lot when the budget is shrinking and the state is growing.

Tightening government spending while the economy is trying to come back has stymied the recovery in North Carolina. Last year, public sector payrolls shrank, led by a 3.8 percent drop in the state government workforce. How can the state’s government be shedding jobs as its population is growing? It does so by ignoring the state’s needs.

Last week, North Carolina business leaders called for the state to increase spending on transportation by billions of dollars, even as revenue from the state’s gas tax is dropping sharply. How will that need be met? There is no General Assembly proposal for repairing the state’s infrastructure anymore than there is a plan for advancing its schools or lifting more of the poor out of poverty.

North Carolina hasn’t just stopped moving forward, it has stopped keeping up. It’s sliding backward, losing ground. And its people are, too.

What’s so discouraging about this reversal is that it’s self-inflicted and unacknowledged by those responsible. As the General Assembly returned to session this month, Republican leaders showed not a whit of concern about the revenue shortfall or a doubt about their scorched-earth approach to state funding or any sign of listening to those who say the state should do more.

Once again, there was the scene last week of clergy and progressives led by NAACP President Rev. William Barber being spurned by legislative leaders when they sought meetings in the Legislative Building. Is it really so hard for elected officials to meet with citizens who represent a different point of view?

That refusal to meet is symbolic of the refusal to see reality. The truth is that one in every four children in North Carolina lives in poverty. The truth is that the state’s rural counties are still in recession and losing wealth and population. The truth is that the state’s per public spending is among the  lowest in the nation.

And what is the response of legislative leaders? To make rules to keep protesters at bay and to sponsor a law to allow magistrates and registers of deeds to deny same-sex couples the marriage rights upheld by federal courts.

Sometimes it feels as if North Carolina is not so much being governed by conservative Republicans as being occupied by them. There is no listening, no negotiating, no adjustment in response to experience. There is simply a sense of, “We won – things are as we say they are, or soon will be.”

Republicans control the state. But they can’t dictate reality. It will express itself, and ultimately it can’t be denied. Look at Kansas, where a drop in tax revenue has forced Gov. Sam Brownback to acknowledge that deep tax and spending cuts have left the state short of meeting its needs.

The same will happen in North Carolina. The question is, how much damage will be done before Republicans are forced to look past their illusions and see the real state of North Carolina?

Editorial page editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-829-4512, or nbarnett@newsobserver.com

February 1, 2015 at 7:00 am
Frank Burns says:

The reality is government spending has grown and expanded under years of Democratic neglect and needs to be corrected. There is still plenty of fat!

Is it really necessary to spend so much on free day care? Government studies tell us they don't make much of a difference in the education of children.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to brag that we live in the lowest taxed state? Let's remember the hard working taxpayers in NC for a change.

February 1, 2015 at 9:03 am
Rip Arrowood says:

As Walter Cronkite would say:

"...and that's the way it is."