Jensen: NC Governor race most-watched nationally

Published October 17, 2015

by Dan Way, Carolina Journal, October 15, 2015.

North Carolina features “undoubtedly the premier governor’s race of the country” for 2016, and if the election were held today GOP Gov. Pat McCrory would be re-elected despite shaky approval ratings, said Tom Jensen, director of the Raleigh-based firm Public Policy Polling.

Jensen spoke of the race expected to pit McCrory against Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper at a Wednesday luncheon event sponsored by the John Locke Foundation. PPP is a national political research firm that surveys voter positions in state and national elections.

Based on current polling data, Jensen said two-term GOP U.S Sen. Richard Burr appears to be on track for re-election. Democrat Hillary Clinton is far behind the Republican presidential field in North Carolina, and GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump still leads state polls.

McCrory, like Burr, “is not beloved by Republicans,” Jensen said.

McCrory has an approval rating among Republicans between 60 percent and 65 percent. Popular incumbents normally have an approval rating of between 80 percent and 85 percent, he said. As a result, the governor’s overall favorability rating has languished at about 40 percent, and his disapproval rating about 45 percent.

However, Jensen said, Republicans who say they don’t like McCrory still would vote for him instead of a Democrat. He expects to see more “straight-down-the-line partisan” votes in 2016 than in past elections. That could hurt McCrory, who got a 25-30 percent crossover vote from Democrats in 2012, he said.

While he views the 2016 race as “an undisputed toss-up,” Jensen said “if the election was today Gov. McCrory would get re-elected,” according to PPP polling. “McCrory’s advantage, though small, has always been continuous” in seven of 10 monthly polls this year.

McCrory’s approval numbers dipped as low as the mid-30s this summer, but Jensen said that was expected.

“The governor gets more unpopular with the voters when the legislature is in town every year. It happened when Gov. [Beverly] Perdue was in office, and it’s happening with Gov. McCrory,” Jensen said. Cooper led McCrory by 2 to 3 points in June, July, and August, but this month the governor topped Cooper by 2 points.

"One of the most interesting things we know about Roy Cooper is that a majority of North Carolinians don’t know him,” Jensen said. That is a reflection of the fact that most voters don’t pay much attention to down-ballot races.

PPP polling shows only 50 percent of voters have an opinion of Cooper, compared to 70 percent in 2008. Jensen attributes that to Cooper’s high profile during the Duke lacrosse hoax in which he declared the falsely accused defendants innocent of raping a stripper.

Running unopposed in 2012 further blunted his public profile, Jensen said. The unknowns present an opportunity for him to create a positive image for voters. But it is also a risk if Republicans define him negatively first.

Cooper’s polling numbers are similar to those of former Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan at this time two years ago in her re-election bid against then-state House Speaker Thom Tillis, Jensen said.

Independent organizations started attacking her and “really drove a negative opinion towards her in voters’ minds that she wasn’t ever able to really come back from,” Jensen said.

He expects a repeat of “a heck of a lot of money coming in on both sides bashing the heck out of both of these candidates,” calling it “the era of $100 million worth of attack ads.”

Independents don’t particularly like McCrory or Cooper, though McCrory has about a 10-point advantage among them. That is well below his 2-to-1 advantage among independents in 2012.

Jensen said Democratic candidate Ken Spaulding, a Durham attorney and former state legislator, is a long-shot candidate with 15 percent name recognition, similar to what would be expected if pulling a random name from a phone book.

In the U.S. Senate race, Burr “has very soft approval numbers, which is the bad news for him,” Jensen said. The good news is he’s had soft numbers for 11 years “and it didn’t stop him from getting re-elected by 12 points in 2010.”

Burr has a 30 percent approval rating, 35 percent disapproval, and 35 percent no opinion.

“We found that only 47 percent of Republicans approve of the job he's doing,” Jensen said. But like McCrory, he would benefit from Republicans voting along party lines.

Burr leads Democratic opponents Deborah Ross, a former Wake County legislator, and Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey by about 10 points. Roughly 20 percent of voters have an opinion of Ross and Rey.

Jensen said the race is reminiscent of incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole eight years ago, when a host of Democrats refused to run against her, and Hagan, then a state senator, stepped forward. Hagan polled by a margin similar to that of Ross and Rey, and ended up winning.

Jensen added that 2008 was a great Democratic year. “I don't think 2016 is going to be a great Democratic year.”

The presidential race is not looking as competitive in North Carolina as it did in 2008 and 2012, when only 2 to 3 points separated Barack Obama from Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney.

In PPP’s last statewide poll, Clinton was down 9 to 10 points to GOP candidates Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, and 5 points to Trump and Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz was the only GOP candidate she topped.

Trump is “doing well in North Carolina,” polling at 24 percent in mid-August and 26 percent now to lead the Republican presidential field, Jensen said. But he doesn’t expect that lead to last, as some GOP aspirants drop out and direct their voters to someone other than Trump.

And when Trump is matched head-to-head with other GOP candidates in the polling, “Carson blows Trump away” by 15 to 20 points every time, Jensen said. Rubio and Fiorina tie with Trump. “Trump beats [Jeb] Bush head to head by about 20 points, so I think Bush really is in big trouble.”

Carson is “by far and away the strongest Republican candidate in General Election polling, beating Hillary Clinton by margins that a Republican hasn’t really seen since Michael Dukakis was the Democratic candidate,” Jensen said.

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