NC SPIN Online

Not much buzz
Maybe it’s because everyone was preparing for, enjoying, then returning from the Labor Day holiday, or maybe it’s because of attention focused on the national conventions, or perhaps everyone’s concerned about Tropical Storm Hanna (and Ike) and worried about the impact to our state. Heck, it might be because Duke won a football game or East Carolina upset Virginia Tech. Whatever the reasons, the streets are unusually quiet this week.

Republicans take center stage
Was Senator John McCain’s selection of Governor Sarah Palin a stroke of genius of a major misstep? Time will tell but the news of her pregnant 17 year-old daughter has certainly taken much of the focus away from the convention and the issues.

Am I the only one to find rich irony that Juno, the movie about the teenage girl who gets pregnant, and Juno is also the capital city of Alaska, home to the teenage daughter of the Governor who is pregnant?

I really enjoyed the blogs of Carter Wrenn and Gary Pearce about Palin on http://www2.talkingaboutpolitics.com

We are waiting until both conventions are concluded to give a full discussion on how they might impact North Carolina. You can see this on next week’s NC SPIN.

Sex ed
But the issue also started a firestorm of discussion about teen sex and sex education in public schools. Ruth Sheehan, columnist for The News and Observer and NC SPIN panelist, wrote an interesting column regarding the subject. Read it here.

This subject will reopen the sex education debate and you can be sure that we will discuss it on a future NC SPIN.

This week’s My Spin column talks about the need for a tune-up of Driver’s education. What does that have to do with the subject above? We will never think of either topic without remembering Betty Ray McCain, former Secretary of Cultural Resources under Governor Hunt, telling people she came from a town so small they had to use the same car for driver’s ed and sex ed.

Lying to pollsters
Tom Jensen, head of Public Policy Polling, North Carolina’s most frequent and best source for polling, wrote an interesting blog yesterday stating that people lie to pollsters. He begins by citing a CBS News poll that reported that 71 percent of those surveyed reported watching the Democratic Convention last week. That’s interesting considering the ratings only indicated 24 percent of the home were tuned in the last night (probably the highest rated) of the convention. Jensen concludes, and we agree, it was virtually impossible for 71 percent to have watched the convention.

Jensen then went into data his firm collected showing “21% of North Carolinians claimed to have watched the debate WTVD hosted a couple weeks ago. That in and of itself is not remotely believable but the crosstabs made it seem like even more of a joke- 30% of voters in the southeastern part of the state, 25% in the northeast, and 17% in the Mountains, Charlotte, and Triad claimed to have watched the debate. The only problem with that? As far as I know it wasn't even televised outside of the Triangle!”

What’s up with that? Tom Jensen has hit the nail on the head in understanding human nature. “I think folks tell the truth about who they're supporting for various offices, but they appear to be eager to come across as more informed and engaged than they actually are when it comes to things like watching debates and conventions- not a whole lot us pollsters can do about that.”

That is a good point for all political junkies to understand and remember. Few want to admit they are uninterested, uninformed or unwilling to participate in the process. They want pollsters, their friends, and everyone to believe they are better informed and more plugged in than they actually are.

Jensen’s blog is one we regularly visit. Check it out at http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

New poll good news for Obama, Hagan, McCrory
Speaking of polls, a new North Carolina poll released by Democracy Corps done by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research confirms some recent PPP and other polls. Here’s a quick summary from the 852 likely voters they surveyed between August 20-26th:
68 % said this country was on the wrong track.

43-43% was the Obama-McCain vote, but when you add in those leaning toward one candidate or the other McCain is ahead 47-44.

43-42% is the Perdue-McCrory race for Governor, but when you factor in those leaning the race is dead even at 46-46%.

48-43% is the lead Kay Hagan enjoys over Elizabeth Dole. Factor in those leaning toward one candidate or the other and Hagan still leads 50-45%. This same poll indicated that Dole has a 39% disapproval rating. The ads being run by the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee are working.

You can see the complete results, including interesting tabs on this poll by visiting: http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/ncsw082608fq1.pdf