NC SPIN Online

Almost there
Thanks to all those who have contributed to our favorite cause, Juvenile Diabetes. This is a disease that strikes young people, killing their pancreas and the ability to secrete insulin into their bloodstream. Those infected are forced to prick themselves several times each day to read their blood glucose levels and take shots to inject insulin into their blood to offset the sugars they ingest. Researchers predict they can find a cure soon. Our grandson Hart is JD and we want to do everything possible to help find that cure. To date we have raised $525 toward our goal of $1500 and time is running out. If you can do so, please make your contribution. To contribute click here:

Looking ahead
Tired of the distasteful candidate TV ads? Let’s change focus and start thinking about 2009 when our newly elected officials take office. NC Policy Watch Director Chris Fitzsimon warns that the major topic next year will be the growing budget deficit, now estimated to be $2 billion before any increased spending for teacher bonuses, enrollment increases, Medicaid, state employee pay raises or the huge deficit in the state employee health plan are factored into spending.

For more discussion about what our next Governor will (and should) face be sure to read this week’s My Spin, as Tom Campbell says that in every problem there is also an opportunity.

Basnight, Rand rumors or truth?
We keep hearing rumors of a coup to remove Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight and Senate Majority Leader Tony Rand. We went to the source, former House Speaker Joe Mavretic, who led a coup against former House Speaker Liston Ramsey and his Majority Leader Billy Watkins twenty years ago in 1989.

Mavretic says he has heard the talk also, but doubts there’s much to it at this time. According to Mavretic, any serious action would probably not take place until after the election and it was known for sure the count of Democrats vs. Republicans and, more specifically, who would become members of the Senate in the next term.

In looking ahead to the future, one fact is certain. The makeup of the Senate is sure to change following the 2010 elections. The great population shift to urban areas will be reflected in redistricting (likely to come 2011 or 2012) and subsequently more urban seats, especially in the 50 member State Senate. Some members from the urban areas might want to get the jump on redistricting, putting themselves in more visible leadership roles so that when the power shifts they will be ready.

Whether the rumors are true or not, the election of leadership in next year’s Senate will be worth watching. Count on us to keep you informed.

“Souls to the polls”
That’s the name of the get out the vote effort to be initiated by the state NAACP, we’re told. We understand that former Governor Jim Hunt had a meeting with the organizations leaders and in very strong terms expressed the importance of the black vote in the state.

Indeed most political observers will tell you the outcomes of this election rest on the issue of how large the black vote will be. It is well established that this vote will be solidly Democratic and when experts are predicting that winning margins in the state’s hotly contested presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races could be as small as 100,000 votes, turnout of Blacks is essential. Most believe that if this African American vote gets to be 20-21 percent of the turnout, Democrats could conceivably run the table in North Carolina.

Early voting continues strong and Democrats are outnumbering Republicans two to one, with young and African American voting very strong.

Bubba backlash
Most media types have focused on the black vote but have overlooked the “bubba backlash” on November 4th. The Obama candidacy and raised emphasis on black voting are stirring a silent but growing cadre of white males determined to vote. We have talked with some experts who predict this backlash could amount to as much as 5-6 percent of the vote. It is beneath the radar screen of the media but it is real and will be a factor on November 4th. Will it be enough to negate the predicted “Obama surge?” Perhaps not, but if our experts are correct and the margins of victory in the Presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial elections are as slim as 100,000, this could affect the outcome.

Don’t expect any news stories on this bubba backlash, but count on it being real.

Davis gives nod to younger candidates
We reported several weeks ago that John Davis, former head of NCFREE, was making a prediction that Democrats could lose control of the NC Senate. Now Davis, in his “John Davis Political Report,” is predicting the races will be won by younger candidates. According to this seasoned observer of state politics, two strong forces are coming together at the same time to cause these predictions. According to Davis, “In 2008, we see the confluence of two powerful political forces: the anti-establishment mood of the voters and a generational change era. Many incumbents, especially the “ins” who are over 60 years old, will lose their campaigns trying to navigate the turbulence created by these two forces.”

So incumbents over 60 are in danger. Davis’ prediction signals poorly for John McCain (73) running against Barack Obama (46). “Expecting a 23-year-old new voter to vote for a 73-year-old candidate is like expecting a 60-year-old voter to vote for a candidate who is 110 years old,” says Davis. If elected John McCain would be the oldest president since the founding of the country, making Ronald Reagan look like a young whippersnapper with his election at 69. Davis credits much of Obama’s popularity to engaging young voters, not just African Americans.

If true, this bodes well for the 55 year-old Kay Hagan running against the 73 year-old Elizabeth Dole. It also helps Pat McCrory, age 52, in his gubernatorial race against Beverly Perdue, 61 years old. Davis continues “…McCrory’s potential is enhanced by the same antiestablishment and generational change forces helping Obama and Hagan. According to a Civitas poll conducted October 9, McCrory leads Perdue among 18 to 25 year-old voters by 49% to 33%, similar to Obama’s substantial 53% to 36% advantage with the same group over McCain. Among voters in the 26 to 40 year-old range, McCrory wins over Perdue by 46% to 35%.

“Additional proof that many of the Obama and McCrory voters are motivated by the same
political forces is found in the Civitas poll results on North Carolina’s Unaffiliated voters, who now make up one-in-five of all voters in the state … over 1.3 million strong. McCrory leads Perdue among Unaffiliated voters by a whopping 46% to 32%; Obama leads McCain among
Unaffiliated voters by 49% to 40%.

“If Hagan defeats Dole, it will be the first time since 1968 that a Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in North Carolina during a presidential election year. If McCrory defeats Purdue, it will be the first time since 1920 that a Charlotte mayor has served as governor of North Carolina.”

Davis has been right before. Want to read his entire report? Click here:

Perdue ads charge McCrory is divisive
Bev Perdue’s campaign has started a new ad that is running on stations in the Eastern part of the state charging that if Pat McCrory is elected Governor he will withdraw road funds from the rest of the state in favor of paving roads in Charlotte. The ad says, "Don't let Pat McCrory divide North Carolina. He's not for all of us."

Prior to taping a special edition of NC SPIN, McCrory retorted that the ad was full of untrue statements and that Perdue didn’t have the courage to run that same ad in the Charlotte market. She is the one who is trying to be divisive; McCrory told SPIN….the evidence is right there in her TV ad.

Be sure to see our exclusive interview with McCrory this week on NC SPIN. Perdue declined a similar interview on NC SPIN.

Passenger rail in our future?
North Carolina’s transportation crisis begs solutions. The North Carolina Railroad may have some valuable information to help in relieving congestion on our roads. A new study by the NCRR concludes that commuter trains could operate on existing tracks, so long as the passenger trains don’t affect freight operations along the Goldsboro to Greensboro portion of the 317 miles of tracks owned by the railroad.

With high gas prices, people abandon their cars in favor of public transit. Most transportation experts agree we can’t build enough roads fast enough to move our people and that transit must be part of any solution to our state’s transportation problems. There is also evidence that passenger service won’t likely be a break even proposition.

You can read the full report by clicking here:

No tricks, just treats
Get a jump on Halloween fun by attending the 14th annual Extra Special Super Kids benefit at the State Farmers Market Restaurant Thursday, October 30th. Our good friend Rufus Edmisten started this great effort to help provide scholarships and helps for needy kids wanting to go to college and this organization has donated tens of thousands of dollars to that end. Your minimum donation of $35 will help greatly to benefit, but you get the treat. We promise you one of the best meals you’ll have in the Capital City…..shrimp cocktail, barbecue, country ham biscuits, banana pudding, and lots of great company. You’ll rub shoulders with celebrities, politicians, and just plain ole good people wanting to help those less fortunate. Come join the fun….if you can’t attend, mail your contribution to Foundation for Good Business, Post Office Box 26762 • Raleigh, NC 27611. You can visit their website at www.specialsuperkids.com. Thanks.