Election analysis Posted: Thursday, November 6th, 2008 What happened Tuesday?
On last week’s NC SPIN we asked our panelists to predict winners and losers in Tuesday’s elections. How did they do? After reviewing the tape thoroughly we can report that they pretty much stuck to party lines. Brad Crone and Chris Fitzsimon got 6-0 records, predicting Obama, Hagan, Perdue, Dalton, Wood, and Cowell as winners. Joe Mavretic was close, with a 5-0 score. He hedged on the presidential race. Theresa Kostrzewa scored 2-4, correctly picking Dalton and Cowell to win. Tom Fetzer was 1-4, picking only Cowell. For some reason we didn’t get a prediction from him on the presidential race. Trailing the pack with a perfect 0-5 loss was John Hood. We didn’t get a prediction from him on the Lt. Governor’s race, but he missed on all the other ones. You really need to hear them defend these predictions on this week’s NC SPIN, which also gives you the best analysis of the elections you’ll find.
This election was historic in many ways
4.3 million voters voiced their choices in this election. 2.6 million cast ballots during early voting. Only 1.7 million showed up on Election Day, one reason why lines were short in most precincts most of the day. No doubt the rain dampened the enthusiasm of some to vote, but early voting proved highly popular, especially with young and first time voters.
North Carolina hasn’t seen a campaign like that conducted by Barack Obama in our state (and others) this year. 400 paid staffers on the ground, hundreds more volunteers and a ground game plan that would have impressed the planners of D-Day. Obama’s strategy was to energize his supporters and get them to the polls early to vote. Not only did it score well for him but it helped Democrats up and down the ticket. Republicans had a poorly conceived and executed get out the vote effort…and paid for it. See more on this later in this report.
Pundits had predicted that the Presidential, Gubernatorial, and U.S. Senate races were too close to call. Traditional wisdom was once again wrong two out of three times. The U.S. Senate race was called early in the evening. It wasn’t close.
Elizabeth Dole’s rambling concession speech had us all questioning “whatever happened to the Liddy Dole we know?” To be sure it was an emotional experience and we needn’t judge too harshly, but heads were shaking over what that was all about.
Dole can blame the President, the economy, the 527 groups, or whoever she wants but the blame, but her loss is hers. Dole never spent much time in the state rubbing shoulders with her constituents, she never championed legislation for North Carolina and most everyone agrees her office had horrible constituent serving, something Jesse Helms mastered. She obviously took her re-election for granted for too long. One year ago she was a shoo-in; Democrats had to beg Kay Hagan to run after being turned down by the big names in the party. Wonder how they feel now?
Dole never had a plan for what she wanted to do in her second term…or at least she never shared it with the people. Women, moderate Democrats and unaffiliated voters who helped put her in office voted her out. They didn’t see any solid return on the investment and gave their vote to someone new and largely untested on a statewide stage. Will Hagan continue or break the cycle of North Carolina’s legacy of one-term Senators? She has a clean slate and six years. We will all be watching.
Another first: A woman governor
The Perdue-McCrory contest never was as tight as predicted. Fox News was the first to call it, but McCrory himself pulled the plug before any other networks made the call, ending what he knew was a certainty. What happened? He lost the election in early voting. The Obama surge, so widely projected before the election, may not have been as big as some had forecast, but it put just enough wind in the sails of Bev Perdue to give her a victory.
McCrory lost Guilford by a handful, Wake County by 20,000, and his own County of Mecklenburg by 600 votes. He knew the party was over and conceded. There was great disappointment in the McCrory camp. They had tried to run a positive, issue oriented campaign and it didn’t resonate with voters. Right wing Republicans will claim the campaign didn’t stick to their core values and didn’t rally their supporters to the polls.
Women rule
We predicted earlier this year it would be a good year for women in statewide elections. Results show this forecast was accurate. In addition to the first woman to be elected Governor we have 6 of the 10 slots on the Council of State held by women. It is interesting to note that the leading vote getter among the 10 was not our Governor. In fact, Attorney General Roy Cooper led the ticket for Council of State members, no doubt a tribute to his handling of the Duke Lacrosse case and those TV ads showing him walking down the steps with law enforcement officers.
Here’s how the vote totals of the winners stood as of this morning, according to the State Board of Elections:
Roy Cooper 2.510 million Attorney General
Elaine Marshall 2.290 million Secretary of State
Janet Cowell 2.154 million Treasurer
June Atkins 2.153 million Superintendent of Public Instruction
Beth Wood 2.150 million Auditor
Beverly Perdue 2.120 million Governor
Walter Dalton 2.109 million Lt. Governor
Steve Troxler 2.106 million Commissioner of Agriculture
Wayne Goodwin 2.082 million Insurance Commissioner
Cherie Berry 2.041 million Labor Commissioner
Republicans need a makeover
The State Republican Party needs an extreme makeover. It has forever had a problem recruiting good candidates. But it has no message, or if it does it isn’t being heard. It cannot raise money. Republicans lack leadership. Where once they were gaining on Democrats in voter registrations, this past election cycle they suffered an 8 to 1 deficit.
The State GOP is a mess. If Republicans in North Carolina are to be at all relevant they must join the game and learn how it is being played in the 21st century. This means finding messages to resonate with mainstream voters, figuring out how to convey those messages so as to be heard, recruiting new party members, raising money using the Internet, returning to grass roots retail politics. And they must learn something about get out the vote campaigns. They lost this year’s elections before the polls opened Tuesday. The 2010 and 2012 elections will be won or lost in the next six to nine months.
One question begs answering. Until the last year or so many young adults were registering and considered themselves Republican. What happened to change that? Is it George Bush, the Iraq War, the economy or what? If state Republicans could figure out why they are losing young people they might have a handle on coming back, but if past is prologue this isn’t likely to happen.
Obama masters the political game
Barack Obama played “Moneyball” in this election. His campaign will be a case study for years to come, especially as he mounted serious efforts in previously “red” states like North Carolina and Virginia. Many thought he was just trying to stretch McCain’s resources here, reasoning a dollar McCain spent in North Carolina was a dollar he couldn’t spend in a highly competitive state.
Obama knew better. His campaign advisors are true students of the political game. They excited volunteers who were willing to eat Vienna sausages and sleep on floors to work for their “cause.” They played retail politics in masterful form, understanding which precincts in which counties could benefit from door-to-door and telephone messaging. Let us not discount the tremendous advantage they had in money. They got the money (using Internet fundraising to great advantage) and they spent it freely on messages that contained hope for a better time and gave enough specifics to believe there was a plan behind the campaign rhetoric.
Of course George Bush, the economy, and the war in Iraq didn’t help McCain. It wasn’t a good year to be a Republican but McCain was playing catch-up from the first. Another first and last in this campaign is probably public financing for presidential campaigns. McCain’s insistence on sticking with public financing (legislation he sponsored) probably spelled the end of that notion. But McCain never really believed that North Carolina would fall to Obama and didn’t make any significant moves here until mid-October. It was too little too late.
One thing must be said. This was certainly an historic election, electing an African American. But the mainstream media once again went on a feeding frenzy with this part of the story. The candidate elected was a black man, but never forget he was elected by white voters who weren’t voting for a black man; they were voting for the person they deemed the best candidate who happened to be an African American. This wasn’t about race, as exit polling confirmed. Despite the historic nature of the election, those who try to focus too finely on this aspect of the election will most assuredly be disillusioned in future campaigns.
Let us celebrate the progress that has been made but also understand that Barack Obama is a highly intelligent candidate who didn’t play the race card, didn’t play the blame game, and didn’t whine about disadvantages. He spoke forcefully, called out the best in us and engaged people in a cause. Voters responded and will do so again and again when such candidates present themselves. The message to African Americans is clear. Field good candidates, run good campaigns and you can win.
Racism didn’t end with Tuesday’s vote. We still have too many blacks dropping out of our high schools. There are still too many black unwed mothers. There is still a disproportionate share of poverty, obesity, and infant mortality among minorities. These didn’t go away Tuesday and still require our best efforts to help reduce them. But Obama’s election could also become a wake-up call to African American leaders to call their own into greater responsibility and accountability.
Has North Carolina become a blue state?
Since 1898 we’ve been a state controlled by Democrats at the state level. Dixiecrats, we were often called, voting Democrats into office statewide while voting for Republicans on the national level, often in Congress and in U.S. Senate seats. Obama’s victory here likely didn’t change this. In fact, NC SPIN panelist and former Raleigh Mayor Tom Fetzer is predicting that 2010 will see a Republican shift and that our legislature will change control with those elections. It is far too early for national Democrats to crow about changing the colors in our state. Show us your candidates, then we will show you how we’ll vote.
Perdue begins the transition
Inside sources say that Beverly Perdue was concentrating all resources on winning the election and had not made any plans for making the transition. She is playing catch-up and doesn’t have the luxury of lots of time. The first 100 days of her administration are critical. Read My Spin on www.ncspin.com.
What about key appointments? No rumors are circulating except we hear Lanny Wilson is highly favored to become the next DOT Secretary. If true, Bev has some splainin’ to do about how she’s gonna change things with DOT. Wilson is an Easley DOT board member who has also raised money for Perdue. If true, this appointment would signal same ole’ same ole.’ Status quo?
Bev might be digging herself a hole with her braggadocio about knowing how to handle the deficit. This isn’t going to be easy and anyone who tells you they know how to fix our budget problems either doesn’t understand or is over-optimistic about their abilities. We want a Governor who is optimistic, confident, and action-oriented, but some of Perdue’s enthusiasm might come back to bite later.
Eastern District U.S. Attorney (again)
Last week we talked about the appointment of a new Eastern District US Attorney for the Obama administration. Democrats were appalled at the Janice Cole McKenzie appointment by President Clinton because she clearly wasn’t a great choice. North Carolina Democrats want a street-smart, politically savvy appointment who understands and can use the power of the Grand Jury and the FBI.
Why the emphasis? We’re told this started when Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight was hauled before the Grand Jury to testify about the ethical and legal scandals by politicians in our state. It is now payback time and Basnight (among others) wants to get people as good as Frank Whitney and George Holding have been for Republicans. In other words, they want to go after Republicans as ferociously as they view Republican appointees have gone after them.
Real Estate Transfer Tax dead?
Two Counties had the real estate transfer tax on the ballot Tuesday and both defeated it. It has been before voters 25 times and has been defeated 25 times. But that doesn’t mean the issue is dead. We hear a Wake legislator is prepared to introduce legislation next year for a statewide real estate transfer tax. Get ready for another battle on the issue.
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