| mySPIN |
 Looking Ahead to 2008
by Tom Campbell
December 27, 2007
It won’t be long before the ball drops and we usher in 2008. Let’s look ahead to what the coming year will bring us in North Carolina.
As our state’s economy cools a bit, our rapid growth will show a corresponding slowdown. Home construction, a reflection of home sales, is already cooling. North Carolina will continue our longstanding tradition of lagging behind a nation slipping into recession.
The drought will continue to be a big story in 2008. Our state leadership has been slow in acting, but will be forced to both preserve current supplies and build new sources. Look for controversy to erupt over the lengthy permitting process required to build or expand new water supplies.
We have not heard the end of political scandals in our state, with more indictments of current or former elected officials. The expulsion of Thomas Wright from the House will be little more than window dressing but will signal that legislators understand they need to clean their nests. This year will mark the genesis of a movement to undo gubernatorial succession, precursor to ending long-term legislative leadership in both houses.
The political campaigns promise to be filled with name calling and venom. North Carolina will play no role in the selection of presidential nominees but state Republicans are hoping Hillary will get the Democratic nomination, thinking it will help their candidates. We haven’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter and that record will stand, more especially if Hillary is selected. Elizabeth Dole will win re-election to the U.S. Senate, but the race with Democrat Kay Hagan will be closer than expected.
The race for governor is up for grabs. Expect candidates to start media campaigns early in hopes of differentiating themselves from opponents. The Democratic primary will be bitter and too close to call. With Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory entering the fray Republicans will be divided, but the better financed Fred Smith will win the nomination, especially after he plays the anti-Charlotte card. Whoever the Democratic nominee is, he or she will win, due to the Democrats ability to better organize and finance campaigns. The legislature will remain in Democratic control, thanks largely to the legislative redistricting of the 1990’s and the huge advantage in fundraising they will enjoy.
Watch House Speaker Joe Hackney hit his stride next year. His has a quiet, deliberate style of management, but as he gets his footing he will be more decisive. Key House members include former Speaker Dan Blue and Deborah Ross, both from Wake County. The Senate will be business as usual, with Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight further solidifying his position as the most powerful politician in the state, especially as Governor Easley comes up lame.
The short session of the legislature will once again balk at taking decisive action, even under pressure for funding for water supplies, more schools, mental health, school dropouts, and highways. They will take a pass on most issues, opting to get home quickly for their re-election campaigns. This is not a good sign for a state needing leadership on many fronts.
Aside from the political campaigns, next year promises to be a slower version of the one just ended. |
|
