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 Would Republicans Rather Fight than Win in 2010?
by Tom Campbell
November 19, 2009
By all accounts 2010 should be another 1994 for Republicans. That year the GOP won the majority in the North Carolina House for the first time in almost a century and was approaching parity in voter registrations. But infighting, the inability to raise large dollars to conduct viable campaigns and sometimes lackluster candidates have always prevented Republicans from ever taking control. Will next year be different?
Traditionally, the party out of power in Washington has gained seats in mid-term elections, both at the national and state level. Since Democrats won the White House and Congress in 2008 it is expected Republicans will make gains in 2010. Unemployment, government deficits, corruption and a host of other problems will be blamed on the Democrats. President Obama’s great popularity appears to be sagging and Governor Perdue’s approval ratings are dismally low.
A Public Policy Poll released this week indicates voters will vote for Republican legislative candidates next year by a slim 45-44 margin. By almost the same spread they say they will vote for Republican Congressional candidates. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 45 to 31 percent margin in this state, but almost 65 percent of unaffiliated voters say they plan to vote Republican. The political stars appear to be lining up for Republicans.
A resolution before the North Carolina Republican Party’s Executive Committee could snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Under current policies unaffiliated voters can choose either a Republican or Democratic ballot when they vote in primary elections. The resolution in question would ban these unaffiliated voters from selecting the Republican ballot. Advocates for the motion say unaffiliated voters distort the vote in favor of more moderate candidates, nominees who do not reflect the hard-core conservative views of the party. Republicans aren’t winning, they maintain, because their nominees aren’t conservative enough to turn out their base supporters.
Voter registrations don’t support this notion. Republican Party registrations have declined from 34 percent of North Carolina voters in 2003 to 31.7 percent today. Democrats lost 1.5 percent during this same period while unaffiliated voters increased from 17.6 percent to 22.5 percent. For whatever the reason people who could register for either party don’t choose to do so. A growing number want the freedom to choose which ballot they will vote based on the candidates and the issues. But you have to conclude that the ultra-conservative views of Republicans aren’t attracting new voter registrations.
North Carolina Republicans have a choice. Do they want to draw lines in the sand and stand firm on their litmus test issues for candidates or do they want to win elections? Common sense dictates candidates who must go far to the right to embrace GOP positions on homosexuality, gay marriage and no taxes in order to win primary nominations have a difficult time moving back to center enough to attract the unaffiliated voters needed to win. To get these voters we suggest Republicans must move to the political middle ground and become more moderate. Maybe this isn’t what Republicans really want. Maybe they would rather fight than win.
If true, it is time to start a third party to challenge Democrats. We need at least two strong political parties to ensure good debate, viable choices and good government. Republicans need to decide if they can be that strong alternative in 2010. |
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