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 Shifting Power
by Tom Campbell
January 28, 2010
Voter registration data, coupled with results from the 2010 census data, demonstrates a power shift in North Carolina.
We’ve known for some time that voters were disproportionately choosing to be unaffiliated instead of registering as Republicans or Democrats. Democracy North Carolina reported this week that unaffiliated voter registrations grew 83 percent in the past decade, while Republicans gained 16 percent and Democrats increased by 11 percent. Democrats still have the largest numbers but the influence of both political parties is waning.
At least two significant events played into this decline. Even as Republicans were gaining in new registrations they didn’t have the numbers to win at the ballot box. Their only hope was to allow independents and unaffiliated voters to vote for their candidates in primary elections, hoping these voters would stay with them in general elections. As more GOP candidates won, Democrats also allowed unaffiliated voters to select a Democratic ballot in primary elections, removing the real impetus for having to register for one party or the other. The numbers speak for themselves. 23 percent of North Carolina’s registered voters list themselves as unaffiliated.
Another telling statistic from voter registrations is the 57 percent gain in minority registrations, compared to a 15 percent increase in white registrations during the past decade. We can credit some of this increase to the “Obama surge” of 2008 but minorities, especially Latinos, are growing in significance.
North Carolina votes slightly more women than men, has more voters over the age of 60 and a larger percentage of white voters going to the polls. Eastern Democrats have long held powerful positions in our legislature and in government but will likely lose seats and influence when redistricting occurs in 2011. New districts will be created and more power will shift to urban areas.
Most of the campaigning will be conducted by TV and social media like facebook and YouTube. Statewide candidates will focus most of their campaign efforts on the 25 most populous counties, carefully researching issues important to these voters. They will also appeal to women and seniors, since these are the people who most often vote. Candidates will seek the minority vote but unless this group votes with more consistency and less predictability (for Democrats) they will not get major attention. To win, candidates must capture unaffiliated voters. To get their votes, candidates must move to the center, emphasizing specific plans of action more than rhetoric. Unaffiliated voters respond more to fiscal issues than social agendas.
We will see evidence of these changes in this year’s elections, but the real proof will come following the redistricting that results from the 2010 Census. Whether for good or bad we cannot say at this point, but there is no refuting the shift in power taking place in North Carolina. |
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