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 What to Expect in 2010
by Tom Campbell
January 2, 2010
If you accept the notion that those who focus on public policy issues for a living have some insights into future happenings please allow my predictions about what to expect this New Year.
The economy may recover slightly in the second half of the year but will remain sluggish. Unemployment will continue around 11 percent much of the year. State revenues will be lower than projected, especially in sales taxes and personal and corporate income taxes, leaving the state budget with a 450 million dollar deficit for the year ending June 30th. Governor Perdue has already taken steps to reduce spending and will continue to adjust budgets enough to cover the shortfall.
The lingering malaise in state revenues will create problems for the second year in the biennial budget starting July 1. Legislators had projected the economy would have rebounded and will have to reduce spending further, as there is little chance of raising taxes in an election year. Do not expect the short session of the legislature convening in May to take significant action on tax reform or other issues that scream for attention.
The big election in 2010 will be the U.S. Senate seat. Elaine Marshall will win the Democratic nomination, besting Cal Cunningham for being the hand-picked candidate of the Washington bureaucracy. North Carolinians have never liked being told what to do by Washington. Incumbent Senator Richard Burr will win re-election. This is a must-hold seat for the GOP and they will flood the state with enough star power and dollars to win.
Big turnovers in the legislature due to retirements and election defeats will provide great opportunities for Republicans. The GOP will gain seats but not enough to take control over either house. The narrowed margin in the Senate, coupled with philosophical shifts will pave the way for new Senate leadership in 2011. Despite public statements to the contrary we are not totally convinced Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight will run again in 2010. In addition to health issues Basnight knows the winds have shifted and will not want to return as just a member.
This is a make or break year for Governor Perdue in order to position herself for re-election in 2012. She says she wants to focus on jobs and education, two great issues. But she must articulate specifics of what she wants to do and undertake her plans.
Expect to hear more about corruption by public officials. Indictments on the federal and state level will include a former Governor, former state employees, high dollar contributors and developers. There will be mounted effort for ethics and campaign finance reform, but don’t expect significant reforms this year.
The courts will play an increasing role in determining policy, due to lawsuits and inaction by the administrative and legislative branches. Abuses and failures in mental health and parole will continue. The State Board of Education’s attempt to reform accountability measures will be met by mixed reaction. Erskine Bowles will announce his retirement from the University of North Carolina, even as cries for accountability increase. Water issues will become more prominent, as will other infrastructure needs such as water treatment, bridges and roads.
Expect more layoffs at newspapers and TV stations due to stagnant revenues and high debt service. No ACC basketball team will make the final four this year. Despite hopes to the contrary, the civility in public debate will not significantly improve. 2010 will not be as unhappy a year, but there will be plenty of challenges. May we have strength to meet and resolve them. |
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