Split state

by John Wynne, Politics North Carolina, May 25, 2016.

The latest poll from PPP is a sight to behold: just about every statewide contest is totally tied. The race for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and State Treasurer are all within a point of each other. There’s also interesting results when it comes to HB 2. Let’s take a look.

Governor

41% McCrory (-1)

41% Cooper (-2)

5% Cecil (+1)

Not much has changed since the last poll from PPP. Both party’s candidates lost support from last month, and the Libertarian has gained slightly. None of the changes are significant, though it does suggest that McCrory’s political obituary has been written too early. This looks more like the ultra-competitive contest that it was before the passage of HB 2.

Lieutenant Governor

38% Forest

38% Coleman

A tie here too. This race will be determined almost entirely by turnout and the coattails from the presidential candidates.

Attorney General

39% Stein

38% Newton

Stein’s 1-point lead over Newton is actually the biggest of any of these four races. Like the Lieutenant Governor race, it will be determined by factors other than the candidates themselves. It should be mentioned that Senator Newton has aligned himself closely with HB 2.

State Treasurer

38% Blue

38% Folwell

Another tied race. Both candidates have their strengths. Turning out the black vote will be critical for Blue.

McCrory Approval

44% Approve (+4)

49% Disapprove (no change)

A big boost in McCrory’s approval rating from last poll is seen here – last month it was only 40%. It’s unknown why he gained or even if he gained, but regardless it’s good news for the governor.

Cooper Favorability

30% Favorable (-7)

33% Unfavorable (+6)

And now some bad news for Mr. Cooper. The negative ads are clearly having an effect here. Last month his favorable rating was 37/27, a good rating for any prospective candidate. Now he’s underwater. Republican groups attacking Cooper should be happy at this result, and will keep pounding.

Miscellaneous Favorable Ratings

HB 2 Repeal 50/38

HB 2 35/44

Legislative Democrats 35/49

Legislative Republicans 32/51

General Assembly 19/53

Note the disparity in opposition to HB 2 and support for its repeal. Only 44% of voters say they’re opposed to the law, but 50% want repeal. Obviously, a lot of voters with no opinion on HB 2 itself have an opinion on whether or not to repeal it.

The bottom line – for well over a month now the Cooper team has been having a victory lap. That may have been premature, as this poll finds the candidates knotted as closely together as they’ve ever been. McCrory’s strength is the economy. The furor over HB 2 has not helped him, but it’s possible the federal government’s entry into the debate has allowed him to recover slightly. That, and negative ads attacking his opponent. This still looks to be the premier gubernatorial race in the country.