The exhausted majority

by Tom Campbell, Producer and Moderator of NC SPIN, October 24, 2018.

We talk a lot about today’s tribal, partisan politics, where the camps seem to migrate farther and farther to the right or left, screaming at and accusing each other of ever-increasing atrocities. But just how many are in each tribe and how large is the group that doesn’t fall into either of those camps?

“Hidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape,” is both insightful and provides hope for those of us who have concerns over how this culture will impact our future. After polling 8,000 respondents, conducting 30 one-hour interviews and six focus groups, the organization More in Common, concludes there are as many as seven distinct groups or tribes: progressive activists, traditional liberals, passive liberals, the politically disengaged, moderates, traditional conservatives and devoted conservatives.

Some 8 percent are progressive activists and about 25 percent are traditional or devoted conservatives, both with views not considered in the mainstream. But two-thirds (66%) of Americans don’t claim either of those tribes and constitute what the authors call the “exhausted majority,” people who “share a sense of fatigue with our polarized national conversation, a willingness to be flexible in their political viewpoints, and a lack of voice in the national conversation.”   

My unofficial, non-scientific survey, as I travel around our state, confirms that many are exhausted with the people, the rhetoric and the hardline postures of politics in our state. It’s not that they aren’t interested or don’t care; most understand the importance of the public sector. They just can’t understand why those we elect cannot work together to resolve problems and they are tired of all the hate-filled, fear based, partisan rhetoric.

You can generally get a feel for those the next hurricane couldn’t keep from the polls; often they are willing to tell you who they are for or against. But there are others, and I would say they are that majority the study revealed, who don’t even want to talk about politics or the election. You can’t get a sense of their allegiances or whether they will even exert the energy to vote.

In general, more women, minorities, millennials and those left of center say healthcare is the issue that most concerns them, especially talk about eliminating pre-existing conditions from health insurance or suggesting cuts to Medicaid and Medicare. They tend to vote for Democrats. More males (especially white males), conservatives and those with upper incomes report their biggest issue is the economy. They typically vote for Republicans.

The unanswerable question in this election is who is motivated to vote November 6^th?  

The average turnout for mid-term elections, those without a presidential campaign, is about 44 percent of all registered voters in North Carolina. As of Tuesday, October 23, more than 585,000 - a little more than 8 percent - had cast ballots, a number far in excess of 2010 and 2014 mid-term levels and on par with the presidential contest of 2016. There is definitely interest in this election.

How is going to turn out? I would offer my insightful and, no doubt, accurate predictions but frankly, I’m too exhausted.