Those pesky primaries

Published November 28, 2015

by John Wynne, Politics North Carolina, November 25, 2015.

You wouldn’t know it from the headlines, but technically the nominees for governor haven’t been decided yet. In fact, no one has even filed. But there’s a good chance McCrory and especially Cooper will be facing opposition in their respective primaries. Do they have any chance of losing? Well, that’s another story.

Brawley. Some not-so-good news for the governor: former Rep. Robert Brawley of Iredell County, who lost his seat in a GOP primary last year, is mulling a primary challenge to McCrory. Brawley is railing mostly against toll lanes on I-77, an issue that has been overlooked by many political commentators but is of vast importance to those in the suburbs north of Charlotte and in the Lake Norman area.

In the general, McCrory needs a big margin in the Charlotte exurbs in order to offset probable losses in the state’s metro areas and in Eastern North Carolina, Roy Cooper’s base. So if people affected by the tolls sour on the governor, he’s in big trouble. And needless to say, no incumbent governor wants to deal with a primary. Right now McCrory has the luxury of being able to focus solely on Roy Cooper. A challenge from the Right would take away that advantage.

The question is: will Brawley run? Lately we’ve been bamboozled by people like Greg Brannon, who seemed intent on running in the primary but later revealed he was merely launching a Super PAC. And then there’s Woody White, who seemed on the verge of announcing a challenge against David Rouzer but just yesterday made a big announcement saying he wouldn’t. After those examples, I’m inclined to treat Brawley’s statements as bluster until he actually pays the filing fee.

Spaulding. Unlike on the Republican side, it looks like Cooper is definitely going to face opposition in the primary. While no one expects the Attorney General to lose, his margin of victory will be an important indicator.

After Cooper backed a “pause” for refugees, there is an opening on his left. And while it would probably be foolish to regard Cooper as anything but the de facto nominee, Durham attorney Ken Spaulding could see an uptick in support. PPP’s last look at the primary found Cooper ahead 58/13. It will be interesting if that changes any in their next poll.

In addition to Cooper’s frustrating progressives with his stance on refugees, Spaulding had a good moment and Cooper had a bad one when the frontrunner was seen (literally?) running away from Spaulding’s debate challenge. The Attorney General’s campaign apparently sees no real need to engage with Spaulding at this point in time.

But common to both parties is a belief that candidates have to “earn” their nomination. Because this is especially true of non-incumbents, Cooper would be well-advised to debate his opponent at least once. A successful debate would help broadcast Cooper’s strengths while potentially alleviating concerns from the base that he’s not progressive enough.