Treasurer's race a toss-up

Published May 20, 2016

by John Wynne, Politics North Carolina, May 18, 2016.

North Carolina Treasurer Race: Dan Blue III (D) vs. Dale Folwell (R)

Janet Cowell’s announcement that she was retiring from the State Treasurer position was a big surprise for observers of North Carolina politics. It brought with it an opportunity for the Republican Party to take back the position for the first time since the Reconstruction Era. Almost immediately, the GOP landed a top-tier recruit: Dale Folwell, head of the state Division of Employment Security and a powerful former legislator.

The race appeared to be leaning heavily towards the GOP side, when the Democrats landed a top-tier recruit of their own: Dan Blue III, former chairman of the Wake County Democratic Party and a frequent panelist on NCSpin. Despite a stronger than expected challenge from CPA Ron Elmer, Blue prevailed in the Democratic primary and appeared off to a strong start for the general election. The latest polls show Mr. Blue with a slight lead.

That was before the SEANC gave its endorsement to Mr. Folwell, a boon to the Republican’s nascent campaign. In their endorsement, the group said that Folwell would operate the office “for North Carolina and not for Wall Street.” The statement was a swipe at Blue, a former investment banker at Bear Stearns.

Blue is also being hurt by a recent controversy involving a potential conflict of interest in the office of Ms. Cowell. The SEANC is upset by Cowell’s continuing service on two boards that they say conflict with her role as Treasurer. The controversy in the Treasurer’s office should help Folwell, making this the most promising Republican pickup on the Council of State.

Blue still has a number of assets, though. He’s young, telegenic, and should bring out the black vote. Hillary Clinton is looking to compete in North Carolina this year and HB 2 continues to be an albatross around the neck of Republicans – even Republicans like Dale Folwell, who have nothing whatsoever to do with the controversial law. So at this point, we have to declare the race a pure toss-up. Both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses, making this at least for now a lesser-known but important race to watch on Election Night.

Race Rating: Pure Toss-Up

http://www.politicsnc.com/treasurers-race-a-toss-up/