Tuesday elections test GOP's legislative strength
Published November 1, 2014
by Patrick Gannon, Capitol Press Association, published in Rocky Mount Telegram, October 31, 2014.
Republicans are expected to maintain their majorities in the N.C. House and N.C. Senate after Tuesday’s elections and drive the legislative agenda for at least two more years.
That much is clear.
What’s not clear is whether Democrats will be able to cut into the strong GOP majorities in one or both chambers.
This year, Democrats hope winning back a few seats lost to Republicans the past two election cycles will help them become bigger players in Raleigh and gain a psychological edge for the 2016 elections, when the presidential race means chances for strong gains are greater.
Wake County could be considered the epicenter of tight N.C. General Assembly races in 2014. No fewer than six Republican-controlled legislative seats – two in the Senate and at least four in the House – appear up for grabs in the Raleigh area, a result of open seats, competitive districts and a mix of newcomers and veteran politicians who want to get back in the game.
Several close legislative races also are shaping up in the Asheville area and along the coast, as well as a few rural areas sprinkled in between.
But Joe Stewart, executive director of the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation, a nonpartisan research group that closely tracks legislative races, said it’s more likely that Democrats and Republicans will swap a few districts across the state without much net change in the chambers’ head counts.
“I just don’t imagine at this point that the numbers after Nov. 4 are much different than they are now,” he said.
One reason Republicans will maintain control is the startling lack of seats being seriously contested.
Only about 20 of the 120 House districts and a dozen of the 50 Senate districts across the state are at all competitive this year, political experts agree. Before Election Day, 59 of 120 House seats and 19 of 50 Senate districts are decided because only one candidate appears on ballots in those races.
In dozens of other districts, two candidates are running, but voter registration numbers and habits are so skewed in favor of one party or the other that the districts aren’t considered up for grabs.
As a result, Democrats won’t overcome large deficits in both chambers to win majorities this year.
Instead, they hope to pick off enough seats to eliminate Republican supermajorities in one or both chambers. The Republicans’ 77-43 House majority and 33-17 hold on the Senate mean they have enough votes to reach the three-fifths threshold necessary to override vetoes by Gov. Pat McCrory. Democrats need net gains of four seats in the 50-member Senate and six in the 120-member House to eliminate the veto-proof margins.
“If they come out of Nov. 4 having done that, that’s a huge victory for them in light of everything else going on,” said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College.
This year’s General Assembly races may offer the best insight yet into how voters feel about the conservative turn the legislature has taken the past four years. Are the raucous “Moral Monday” protests in Raleigh a snapshot of how most voters feel about their state government under Republican control? Or are the protesters a vocal minority outmatched at the ballot box?
We’ll see on Tuesday.
