Unaffiliated voters could be a headache for both parties

by Joe Killian, Greensboro News-Record, March 30,2014.

In a year of key state elections, the Democratic and Republican parties are trying urgently to turn out their bases — and a growing number of unaffiliated voters could be a headache for both parties, if they show up at the polls.

Statewide, Democrats still have the registration advantage in North Carolina with 2.8 million voters to the Republican Party’s 2 million .

But that could amount to a slim lead, particularly in an off-presidential election year. When a Democratic president is struggling with the low approval numbers that often dog a president’s second term, it’s a vanishingly small advantage.

“We call it the six-year itch,” said Michael Bitzer, professor of political science and history at Catawba College. “Voters generally get tired of the president’s party when there’s a second term. In the sixth year — this year, for the president — it’s always the opposition’s turn to make advances.”

In Guilford County, Democrats are looking at better numbers — 169,397 registered Democrats to 95,420 registered Republicans.

Both statewide and in Guilford, the number of unaffiliated voters has been on the rise — enough to worry party heads and stymie some political consultants.

Statewide, unaffiliated voters have grown to more than 26 percent of the electorate, up from 22 percent in 2008.

Over the same five-year period, Guilford County’s unaffiliated

voters increased from about 21 percent to 23 percent of registered

voters.

But unaffiliated voters are less likely to show up at the polls — even in contentious presidential election years, when voter interest peaks.

In 2012, when Mitt Romney challenged President Barack Obama in a fever-pitch election, 70 percent of North Carolina’s registered Democrats and 73 percent of its Republicans voted. Only about 60 percent of unaffiliated voters turned out.

“So their numbers are on the rise, but they’re underperforming in terms of actually voting,” Bitzer said.

One reason for that, Bitzer said, is that those registered with one party or another may be more politically active in the first place and therefore more likely to vote. People who register as unaffiliated may do so because they feel alienated from either of the two largest parties. That same alienation may keep them from voting, Bitzer said.

Also, unaffiliated voters aren’t as heavily targeted by the major parties during get-out-the-vote efforts.

“I can buy a CD from the state board of elections and see exactly who is a registered Democrat, who is a registered Republican,” Bitzer said. “If I’m working a campaign, I want to make sure first and foremost that those folks show up. If I have time and money left over, I’ll move on to trying to turn out an unaffiliated voter.”

Concentrating on unaffiliated voters also can be dangerous, even if they are a growing percentage of the electorate.

“Most people who are registered as unaffiliated do tend have a strong preference for one party or another,” Bitzer said. “So if I turn them out, do I really want to risk activating a voter who may then vote against me? I don’t know what I’m getting.”

In Guilford County, large swaths of unaffiliated voters tend to vote conservatively — a fact Republican lawmakers used to their advantage when they created new district lines in 2011.

That’s particularly apparent in the 6th Congressional District, where the retirement of long-serving Rep. Howard Coble, a Republican, has created a political scrum in the GOP primary to be held May 6.

The district has a few hundred more registered Democrats than Republicans, but more than 55,000 unaffiliated voters.

“The district is now majority Democrat, but it’s still conservative,” Coble said in December. “It’s been shown it still votes Republican.”

In the most-watched North Carolina election, U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, may have a rough road against whichever Republican challenger emerges from an increasingly brutal primary.

State House Speaker Thom Tillis has been warring with tea party favorite Greg Brannon over who is the true conservative candidate — and if neither of those two front-runners can take more than 40 percent of the vote, the race likely will go to a July runoff.

That would be good news for Hagan, but there’s no shortage of money and ads to hammer her until then.

“Right now Americans for Prosperity and others are spending a lot of money going after Hagan while the Republicans fight it out in the primary,” Bitzer said. “They’re concentrating on Obamacare, which they’ve seen is an effective issue for them and which they will continue to use until Election Day.”

The cards aren’t all against Hagan. Democratic anger over the actions of the Republican-held General Assembly could help her turn out her base in a year when they might otherwise be tough to stir, Bitzer said.

“This is going to be a base election for both parties, though,” Bitzer said. “That’s where they know they can get the votes. That’s where they’re concentrating.”

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