Who will win North Carolina?
Published August 3, 2016
by 538.com, August 2, 2016.
Who will win North Carolina?
Hillary Clinton
50.9%
Donald Trump
49.0%
Latest polls
We’ve collected 19 polls in North Carolina so far. The model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted, and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. The model then adjusts each poll based on other factors.From polls to a forecast
Our polls-only model takes the weighted, adjusted polling average for each state and uses demographic data to help model the outcome in states with little polling. It then calculates an Election Day forecast, accounting for uncertainty and the correlation of outcomes between states. Here’s how we calculated our North Carolina forecast:
CLINTON | TRUMP | JOHNSON | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Polling average | 43.0%- | 41.0%- | 5.8%- | |
| Adjust for likely voters | +0.2-- | +0.2-- | -0.1-- | ||
| Adjust for omitted third parties | -1.0-- | -1.0-- | +0.0-- | ||
| Adjust for trend line | +0.7-- | +2.3-- | -0.6-- | ||
| Adjust for house effects | -0.0-- | +0.2-- | +0.0-- | ||
| 2. | Adjusted polling average | 42.9%- | 42.7%- | 5.1%- | |
| Allocate undecided and third-party voters | +4.4-- | +4.4-- | +0.0-- | ||
| 3. | Polls-based vote share | 47.3%- | 47.1%- | 5.1%- | |
| Calculate demographic regression | 47.3%- | 47.1%- | 7.1%- | ||
| 4. | Projected vote share for Nov. 8 Weighted average 77% polls-based, 23% demographics | 47.3%- | 47.1%- | 5.6%- |
After calculating each candidate’s projected vote share, the polls-only forecast simulates the election 20,000 times to get each candidate’s chance of winning:
| 5. | Chance of winning North Carolina | 50.9%- | 49.0%- | <0.1%- |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
August 3, 2016 at 11:17 am
Pat Kelley says:
Look at it from this Unaffiliated voter's perspective: The Republicans continue to self-destruct before our very eyes in one major controversy after another ... from Trump (the slain Muslim U.S. soldier's family saga) to McCrory (the HB2 debacle) to Berger/Tillman/etc (the discriminatory state Voter Act). It's a pr nightmare as the once proud party of Lincoln is in shambles at all levels and no one in leadership seems to care ... they just keep digging away at their dignity. Regarding this Silver poll, how can there be only a 2% differential in NC's view of the presidential candidates at this point? Unfathomable. But it IS heartening to hear that voters outside our great state are starting to wise up as nationally the margin is much wider ... I sense that change is a-comin' and I trust it trickles down the ticket.
