2016 close in North Carolina

Published June 21, 2014

by Public Policy Polling, June 19, 2014.

PPP’s newest North Carolina poll previews what could be a pair of very competitive races come 2016. Hillary Clinton has slight leads over potential Republican presidential opponents while Governor Pat McCrory holds a small lead over current NC Attorney General Roy Cooper in a likely match-up.

When put up against Jeb Bush, Clinton leads with 45% of the vote to Bush’s 44%. She also leads Chris Christie 45/41, Mike Huckabee 46/43, and Rand Paul 46/43. North Carolina Democrats are not giving Clinton as much base support as she has received recently in other states, as over 10% of Democrats say they would vote for the Republican candidate in each of these match-ups. Fortunately for Clinton, Republican voters are giving her their votes at just about the same rate.

Incumbent Republican Pat McCrory appears vulnerable in the 2016 Governor’s race, as evidenced in part by his negative approval rating of 39% approval and 45% disapproval. This is actually a slight net improvement from May, where McCrory stood at 40% approval and 48% disapproval. When asked about a potential match-up between McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper, 44% of voters say they would vote for McCrory and 42% for Cooper. Helping McCrory is the fact that Cooper is currently a relative unknown. While 31% have a favorable opinion of him and only 17% unfavorable, a majority (52%) of voters have no opinion of him at all.

“North Carolina’s at the center of the political world with this year’s competitive Senate race and it looks like 2016 may be more of the same,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The state’s heading for competitive races for both Governor and President.”

Voters continue to have a highly unfavorable view of the North Carolina Legislature, as both Democrats (32/50) and Republicans (35/47) have double-digit negative favorability ratings. 43% of voters think that the legislature is calling the shots in state government, while only 27% think that Governor McCrory has more power.

PPP surveyed 1,076 registered voters from June 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat

McCrory’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 39%

Disapprove...................................................... 45%

Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Roy Cooper?

Favorable........................................................ 31%

Unfavorable .................................................... 17%

Not sure .......................................................... 52%

Q3 If the candidates for Governor in 2016 were

Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy

Cooper, who would you vote for?

Pat McCrory.................................................... 44%

Roy Cooper..................................................... 42%

Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator

Richard Burr’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 32%

Disapprove...................................................... 33%

Not sure .......................................................... 35%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb

Bush, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Jeb Bush......................................................... 44%

Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris

Christie, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Chris Christie .................................................. 41%

Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike

Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 43%

Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand

Paul, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%

Rand Paul ....................................................... 43%

Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of the Democrats in the North Carolina

Legislature?

Favorable........................................................ 32%

Unfavorable .................................................... 50%

Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of the Republicans in the North Carolina

Legislature?

Favorable........................................................ 35%

Unfavorable .................................................... 47%

Not sure .......................................................... 18%

Q11 Generally speaking, if there was an election for

the state legislature today, would you vote for

the Democratic or Republican candidate from

your district?

Democrat ........................................................ 41%

Republican...................................................... 43%

Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q12 Do you support or oppose tenure rights for

North Carolina teachers?

Support ........................................................... 51%

Oppose ........................................................... 33%

Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q13 Do you support or oppose the bill recently

passed by the legislature that took away the

ability of municipalities to charge businesses

for privilege licenses to operate in their city?

Support ........................................................... 25%

Oppose ........................................................... 32%

Not sure .......................................................... 42%

Q14 Do you support or oppose continuing North

Carolina’s tax credit program for film industry?

Support ........................................................... 41%

Oppose ........................................................... 29%

Not sure .......................................................... 30%

Q15 Who do you think is calling the shots more in

state government: Pat McCrory or the

legislature?

Pat McCrory.................................................... 27%

The legislature ................................................ 43%

Not sure .......................................................... 30%

Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for

Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 46%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 49%

Someone else / Don't remember .................... 5%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ...................................................... 10%

Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%

Moderate......................................................... 30%

Somewhat conservative.................................. 23%

Very conservative ........................................... 19%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 53%

Man................................................................. 47%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify

with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 43%

Republican...................................................... 36%

Independent / Other........................................ 22%

Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,

press 2. If other, press 3.

White .............................................................. 75%

African-American ............................................ 20%

Other............................................................... 5%

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65

or older, press 4.

18 to 29........................................................... 15%

30 to 45........................................................... 25%

46 to 65........................................................... 37%

Older than 65.................................................. 23%

Q22 Mode

Phone ............................................................. 80%

Internet ........................................................... 20%

Q23 Area Code

252.................................................................. 10%

336.................................................................. 17%

704.................................................................. 16%

828.................................................................. 13%

910.................................................................. 10%

919.................................................................. 14%

Internet ........................................................... 20%