5 numbers define our biggest challenges

Most North Carolinians think our country is on the wrong track. That’s what 55% of respondents said in the latest High Point University survey, with 54% of likely voters offering the same critique in the latest Carolina Journal Poll.

I count myself in that majority. America has faced worse times, to be sure, including in my lifetime. What I find most disconcerting at the moment, though, is how little public dialogue is devoted to what I perceive to be the biggest problems facing our state and nation. Transfixed by devices and bamboozled by clickbait, we seem incapable of focusing on high-priority issues.

Consider these five challenges, defined by five troubling statistics:

• The first is $1.8 trillion. That’s how much the federal government borrowed over the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30. Federal debt held by the public — that is, not counting money “borrowed” from federal trust funds — now stands at $30.3 trillion, or 98% of America’s gross domestic product.

If present trends continue, the debt will soon surpass annual economic output and reach 111% of GDP by 2030. Our federal government now spends more on debt service each year than it does on national defense. I wish I could blame Washington’s recklessness entirely on the politicians who serve there. But voters keep reelecting them! Unless we boot out irresponsible panderers and reward those willing to make tough decisions, American greatness will inevitably fade.

• The second number is 38%. That’s the share of annual health care spending financed by federal dollars — which, as I’ve just indicated, includes a vast amount of borrowed dollars. Adding in state dollars spent on Medicaid and other health plans pushes the government share of medical expenditures up close to half. Unless Congress and state legislatures accept the need to reform these programs, rather than expand them or shift their costs around, balanced budgets will remain forever out of reach.

• The third number is also 38%. According to independent tests, that’s the share of North Carolina eighth-graders who lacked basic math skills in 2024. The same assessment found 35% of eighth-graders lacked basic reading skills.

In 2019, before the COVID lockdowns, those figures were 29% and 28%, respectively. They were too high back then. Too many of our students were unprepared to work, go to college, or shoulder other responsibilities of adulthood. Still, in value-added terms, our schools in 2019 were more effective than those of all but a handful of states across the country. Now we’re far down the list.

• The fourth number is 1.6. That’s the average number of children born per American woman in 2024. It’s the lowest fertility rate yet recorded. The causes of this trend may be hotly debated, as are the effectiveness of potential policy responses, but the effects of slowing population growth are hard to dispute. Economic vitality and innovation will decline, as will the ratio of workers to retirees. A higher savings rate won’t be enough to compensate. Nor will advances in robotics. Human flourishing requires plenty of humans!

• The final number is 35%. That’s the share of North Carolina children living in single-parent households in 2023.

Unlike the figures discussed earlier, this one hasn’t gotten worse over time. The comparable figure a decade ago was 37%. Nevertheless, to have more than a third of our kids living with only one parent or guardian is a tragedy. Parenthood is a hard-enough job when performed in pairs, with plenty of support from extending family. Growing up in a single-parent household is a well-established risk factor for living in poverty, struggling in school, chronic unemployment, substance abuse, and other adverse outcomes.

These five problems aren’t the only ones worth worrying about, I grant you. But it’s hard for me to imagine a thriving nation in the absence of real progress on each of these fronts. Future generations of North Carolinians and Americans will thank us if we tackle these problems — and condemn us if we fail to do so.

John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His books Mountain Folk, Forest Folk, and Water Folk combine epic fantasy and American history.