A bluer ballot isn’t a mandate for bigger government

In last week’s Carolina Journal Poll, 49.5% of North Carolina likely voters favored Democratic candidates to 41.3% who said they intend to vote for a Republican. The results indicate an advantage for Democrats heading into November. Historically, the party in the White House often faces headwinds in midterm elections, but the advantage still looks like it is for Democrats.

Here is where it gets interesting.

Candidate preference is only part of the story. Farther down the survey, respondents in the Carolina Journal Poll sent a message that should encourage fiscal conservatives. The survey gave decisive support for limits on government taxation power. Voters may be leaning blue in the poll, but their preferred government is limited in reach and spending. Both parties should pay attention to the distinction.

Specifically, the poll found widespread approval for a constitutional amendment capping the state income tax rate at 3.5%. The amendment had 66.9% support overall, including 80% of Republicans, 65% of independents, and 56% of Democrats. Even a majority of Democratic respondents favor this specific restraint on taxing power.

Add to the equation that there is a growing number of unaffiliated registered voters, and it becomes clear that North Carolina voters know that electing a candidate involves more than the letter after a candidate’s name. It requires judgment about candidates’ personality, competence, and competing priorities. It does not mean endorsing every plank of a party platform. The poll suggests that even if Democrats gain seats in November, lawmakers should not interpret those gains as a mandate for higher taxes or bigger government.

The poll also finds 65.6% support limits on local property tax increases, while 56.2% are dissatisfied with local spending priorities. Regardless of party, officials seeking additional revenue will have to first explain how they use existing dollars and demonstrate results.

On the amendment requiring that all voters present a photo ID regardless of how they vote, in-person or mail-in, 66% of those surveyed supported the amendment, with 55% strongly supporting. That support comes from 63% of independents, 41% of Democrats, and 95% of Republicans.

This poll is a bipartisan message to lawmakers. Democrats need to face that their coalition includes voters who want firm tax limits. Republicans should recognize that their decade of popular policy positions do not automatically translate into support at the ballot box.

Voters’ everyday concerns with the price of household goods, fuel, and real estate has forced them to exercise fiscal restraint; they expect the same from the government at every level.

With 28 legislative districts viewed as competitive according to the Civitas Partisan Index,Republicans are likely to retain a governing majority in both chambers, even if they lose a few seats. Carolina Journal’s poll shows that voters’ preference for Democratic candidates alongside conservative tax policies should give both parties pause. Republicans cannot take these voters for granted, and Democrats cannot assume their support amounts to a mandate for higher taxes.

Whoever wins in November will still answer to voters who want limits on government’s taxing power.

Donna King serves as editor in chief for the Carolina Journal and Executive Vice President of the John Locke Foundation