An NCDP primary, a red-state gun policy, and the Berger-Page showdown

One underacknowledged reason for low Democratic turnout in North Carolina has been a lack of competitive primaries. The party has not had a seriously contested primary for a major office since 2016. Democratic nominees for the major statewide offices—governor, attorney general, US Senate—have been heavily predetermined by party insiders. Without primaries to galvanize their interest, Democratic voters have had no reason to perk up and get engaged. And this apathy has transferred through to November.

Roy Cooper is the dream candidate to challenge Thom Tillis. But even if he doesn’t run, Democrats still have the opportunity to have an election that strengthens their party. A Cooper-less race would open the stage for other challengers. The likely entrants include potent personalities like Deborah Ross and Hampton Dellinger who would draw the attention of the state. Dan McCready, another probable candidate, will raise a giant fistful of money that he will invest in campaign advertising, further raising the profile of the primary. With greater public engagement, a primary would make the NCDP a livelier and more democratic institution.

The legislature continues to pass ugly, edgy social legislation. Fulfilling a long-term objective of the gun lobby, House Republicans passed a bill to eliminate concealed-carry permitting in North Carolina. This is how fundamental cultural demagoguery is to what I call the Red-State Formula. (See my Butner-Creedmoor News piece for details.) This session, House Republicans have even been willing to slow-walk TAX CUTS. But the spigot of bigotry spews on.

I have two thoughts about this. Phil Berger likes to claim that his majority has won lasting support from North Carolinians with tax cutting. House Republicans are belying his argument. They want to delay a tax cut—supposedly the centerpiece of their majority’s appeal—while continuing the performance for their audience of populist cultural conservatives. The NCGOP wins elections on social issues; supply-side tax policy is served at the VIP afterparty.

This makes me even more skeptical that populism can win rural and working-class white voters for the Democrats. If what the rural white working class responds to is an immigration dragnet and a gun free-for-all, are material appeals really going to win these people over? Rural people just care less about money than other people. That applies to their politics, too.

A quick note on Berger. I don’t think people are fully appreciating the significance of the fact that he’s facing a serious primary challenger. It’s a momentous development. Berger has as much power as Marc Basnight at his Easley-era peak. He has had a far more transformative impact on public policy than Basnight did. And he faces a genuine chance of losing his seat. What we’re talking about here is a local (if prominent) sheriff possibly defeating one of the most influential legislative leaders in North Carolina history. I think it’s one of the biggest ncpol stories in the last ten years.