Been thinking about rising sea levels

Published March 3, 2021

By Joe Mavretic

There is a difference between the damage caused by hurricanes and the effects of rising sea levels yet the two get twisted together every time there is a great storm over North Carolina. I’ve been thinking about this since the 2020 hurricane season ended with only one named hurricane crossing our coast. 
 
There are at least three organizations to which we ought pay attention for our hurricane facts: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC); and, for world stuff, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). My reading of the data from these three has convinced me that, for over a century, our state has averaged slightly less than one hurricane a year. Until our scientists have enough data to prove otherwise, we should have a state emergency plan, and then plan/budget for about one hurricane each year. If we don’t spend the hurricane money in one year, let it carry-over to the next as the odds are that we’re going to need those hurricane damage dollars in a year or two. 
 
This led me to think about the medias’ attention to hurricane damages. Television meteorologists focus on the damages immediately occurring to houses and businesses on our coasts. More houses (beach cottages) and more businesses (tourist oriented) equal more and higher damage costs. The press focuses on the extent of damages and the short-term costs of those damages. No one should be surprised. Every hurricane that crosses our coast is going to effect the wallet of every North Carolina taxpayer and that expense is going to grow every year. There is a clear linkage between more coastal development, more storm damage, and more public and private costs. These short-term, reoccurring, and escalating costs are something that our General Assembly, our Executive departments, and our several coastal counties/cities will be compelled to address.
 
Then it occurred to me that rising sea levels aren’t about hurricane damage costs. Sea level increases are about the loss of land and whatever is under, on or above that land. A hundred years ago, whenever beach land washed away, the locals just moved their home inland. Today, there is another home (cottage) just a few feet behind on its own lot. The next few feet of sea level rise will vanish the existing ocean-front lots and those cottages will have no place to move. The streets and highways that provide access to these buildings will be gone as well as the utilities that support them. This looming catastrophe isn’t about hurricane roof damage or boarding windows or the state’s disaster fund. Sea level rise is about the loss of human habitat.
 
One of several predictions about the effects of sea level rise in North Carolina is that, by the year 2100, our Outer Banks will consist of a few isolated villages connected by flood plains. If you want to see what that condition will look like, visit the north end of Portsmouth Island and stay through a complete tidal change. Another forecast is that our Cape Hatteras National Seashore will be a series of shallow marshes with some sandy areas emerging at low tide. The same will be true for our Cape Lookout National Seashore.
                        
As the Atlantic Ocean rises, our Outer Banks will flatten and slowly migrate westward. All the landform changes to our Outer Banks will be gradual except for the few spectacular beatings by category two/three hurricanes and severe nor’easters. These intense weather episodes will be the natural, periodic reminders that our coast is alive, is changing, and speaking to us. Will we listen and prepare?