Conservatives drive the GOP primary
Published September 24, 2015
by Michael Bitzer, Political Science Professor, Catawba College, WFAE.org, September 24, 2015.
Now that the dust-up of the second GOP presidential primary debate is dissipating, Trump, Carson, and now Fiorina are emerging as the top-tier candidates.
What is interesting is that in the latest two polls, freshly surveyed following the second debate, the confessed ‘political outsiders’—are garnering 54 or 55 percent combined among self-identified Republicans or Republican-leaning voters.
With the possibility that a true ‘outsider/non-elected/non-politician’ becoming the potential presidential nominee for the Republican Party, the Republican National Committee’s diagnosis following the party’s 2012 presidential defeat seems to be going unheard, to put it kindly.
“Instead of driving around in circles on an ideological cul-de-sac,” the GOP study, called the Growth and Opportunity Project, made it very clear that the party “needs to stop talking to itself.”
It went on to say the Republican Party has “become expert in how to provide ideological reinforcement to like-minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with, or welcoming to, those who do not agree with us on every issue.”
Yet it appears the grass-roots conservatives are forcing the party to abandon its potential electoral pragmatism for the ideological “true believers.”
This is evident in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll that had 64 percent of conservative Republicans wanting the next president to be “someone from outside the existing political establishment.”
In looking at those who identified as conservative in the post-second debate CNN poll, the top three were Trump (21 percent), Fiorina (19 percent), and Carson (13 percent), matching their combined total among all respondents. But where does the top “insider” candidate rank among those who identify as “conservative?” At 13 percent is Marco Rubio, the same as “outsider” Carson.
While some would argue that the field is still fluid in terms of support, this year’s GOP presidential competition doesn’t seem to have any of the hallmarks of 2012, or previous contests.
In 2012, it seemed like the “candidate of the month” rollercoaster ride was to avoid anyone but the conventional wisdom nominee, Mitt Romney. Prior to 2012, it was always “the silver medalist” in the previous presidential primary contest who typically would become the party’s nominee.
But this year, it seems like conservative voters have a more viable set of candidates, especially those who proclaim themselves as true political outsiders.
Granted, when the caucus and primary votes are finally cast, GOP voters may decide not to go with their conservative ideological heart but rather a more pragmatic mind. If Rubio can sustain his connection and support to the conservative wing, he may be in a position to fuse the staunch ideological wing with the establishment wing to a nomination, especially if he can keep his head down in what will be rocky fall in Congress.
Back in May, political scientist Wayne Steger noted that when a political party fails to have a coalescing of endorsers and elites around one clear front-runner, then it’s anybody’s ballgame for the nomination.
For all her self-inflicted damage, Hillary Clinton has been able to garner those endorsements and keep her lead, however much it has shrunk. On the GOP side, the lack of any clear winner only helps explain the chaos that the party seems to be experiencing—and why it has yet to figure out what it wants.
September 24, 2015 at 11:44 am
Richard L Bunce says:
It is 14 months before the election, 5 months before the first Presidential primaries/caucuses which the major parties largely ignore in selecting their final delegates to their Party Presidential Nomination Conventions. Relax.
Of course the base of each party controls the nomination of the party. This media nonsense going on now is all circus, no bread.
September 24, 2015 at 6:47 pm
Norm Kelly says:
'On the GOP side, the lack of any clear winner'. This early in the process? Really? Is this guy serious?
If this guy is serious, it must be another lib telling Republicans/Conservatives how to play our game. Last time libs helped us get a 'front-runner' we ended up with a northeast liberal Republican. Kinda like McCain. A wanna-be rather than a conservative. How often to wanna-be's win the presidential race?
What Republican voters have decided at this point in the long, drawn-out, exaggerated process is that establishment or wishy-washy Republicans don't cut the mustard. We've had wishy washy and look what it's gotten us. Obamacancer still in place and still failing. Courts that decide gay marriage is legitimate because so many states have been forced by the courts to accept it. Not because the states decided we wanted gay marriage but because courts forced it upon us. Then the supremes decide that so many states accept gay marriage that it must become the law of the land. Talk about convoluted backwards logic. To the point of not being logical.
Then this guy ends by telling us the obvious liar is still holding her own. But she's lost ground to the admitted socialist. Imagine that! The demoncrats are rallying around an avowed socialist instead of going all-out for the Hildebeast! And who's in the bull pen for demons? Joking Joe! What a joke that guy is!
The current crop of establishment Republicans have gone along with the current occupiers outrageous moves toward socialism with almost no opposition. Executive action that wouldn't be acceptable to libs in Congress if it were a Republican president are endorsed by libs in Congress and simply passed along by establishment Republicans.
So, what's to sell the American people on when it comes to the establishment guys? How have establishment Republicans helped American citizens overcome the goofy, incredible, outrageous move to forgive illegal aliens for breaking our laws? What have establishment Republicans done to stop these illegals from becoming legal demon voters?
So, perhaps now even this guy can see why establishment Republicans are on the outs with voters. Too many libs always makes things worse, not better. The solution is a true conservative. Which eliminates the majority of establishment people. Carly maybe. The Donald maybe. Cruz definitely cuz he's not afraid to stand up for true conservatives. Cruz isn't wishy washy. The guy from Jersey? Another northeast wishy washy mostly lib establishment guy. Not what the country needs nor what the majority of Republican or conservative voters can get behind.
So what we need are Republicans decided who are next candidate is. Not liberal media types or academic types. Both come from the lib camp, support libs, and think Billary is just great. Her lies don't matter. Her socialist leanings don't matter. If she were only a little less honest and a little more openly socialist, then media and academic types could really get behind her! (is it possible for her to be any less honest?!)
