Cooper has a strong base but faces a new challenge

We now have some polling data with which to estimate the early shape of North Carolina’s Senate race. Emerson College Carolina Journal have both released surveys sketching out a similar picture of the race. I think these polls offer a plausible snapshot of the state of play at this time. They illustrate the unique and nuanced nature of North Carolina politics.

Each poll shows Roy Cooper in the high-forties with a six-to-eight point lead. John Hood argued in Carolina Journal that Cooper’s lead was “not very impressive.” I respect John’s intellect, but I think his judgment stemmed from a set of expectations formed by Cooper’s long-demonstrated prowess that were actually a bit unmoored from his polling history. In fact, Cooper’s standing—a healthy lead that still leaves him a couple points short of 50%—is similar to where he polled early in the 2020 gubernatorial cycle. What Cooper’s numbers show is not underachievement but rather a relatively strong base built over decades of winning elections.

But the differences between Cooper’s early Senate polling and his performance in gubernatorial polls are also revealing. While he still enjoys a high floor, Cooper’s single-digit lead is narrower than the wide margins by which he originally led Dan Forest and Holly Grange. Michael Whatley, Cooper’s Senate opponent, is no better-known than either of those people, so what Whatley’s relatively healthy support demonstrates is that Republicans start strong in Senate races. This race will be tougher and closer for Cooper than his many victories running state office. But it’s important that transitioning from state to federal politics has not eroded his base.

Thus, Cooper starts the race as a STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE Democratic Senate candidate. He will face the same challenges as any North Carolina Democrat—the state’s strong conservative streak and aversion to centralized federal power. But he garners more support than the typical Tar Heel Democrat can expect, especially at an early stage of the cycle. Cooper’s numbers—49% and 47%—already exceed Democrat Deborah Ross’s final showing in her strong challenge to Senator Richard Burr a decade ago. The upshot is that Cooper has less ground to make up than other Democrats who have run for Senate. Nearly any North Carolina Democrat enters Senatorial politics as an underdog. That Cooper begins as the fairly clear favorite has significant implications for the dynamics of the race.

Cooper’s polling also illuminates a truth about his protege, Josh Stein, that has long eluded too many North Carolina politicos. The chin-strokers inside the Beltline take for granted that Josh Stein is (as the oft-rehearsed phrase goes) “the most liberal governor in North Carolina history.” The polls contradict this delusion. In each survey, Stein enjoys higher approval ratings and less opposition than his mentor, Cooper. So: Despite his alleged radicalism, our current governor is a less polarizing figure than his mentor, the old home boy from the world of tobacco barns and vinegar-based barbecue. The truth about Stein is that he is a political pragmatist with values rooted in Jewish social responsibility, a humane creed that complements, rather than counters, the long heritage of public service to which he and Cooper have so nobly dedicated their lives.