Dems get Wake-up call
Published February 17, 2014
By John Hood
by John Hood, John Locke Foundation and NC SPIN panelist, February 17, 2014.
Shut out of formal power in the state capital for the first time in more than a century, North Carolina Democrats hope that 2014 will mark the beginning of a steady climb back to legislative majorities and the Governor’s Mansion by 2016.
The incline is steep. Republicans now have supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly: 77-43 in the House and 33-17 in the Senate. As for Gov. Pat McCrory, his first year proved to be quite rocky but the situation has improved in recent months. An average of the most-recent statewide polls puts him at 43 percent approval vs. 43 percent disapproval with the remaining respondents having mixed or neutral opinions about his job performance. While hardly stellar, these averages represent an improvement since late 2013. By comparison, President Barack Obama remains upside down in North Carolina with average approval the same as McCrory’s (43 percent) but average disapproval a bit higher (51 percent). Sen. Kay Hagan is in worse shape at 37 percent/47 percent.
If 2014 is to signify the Democrats’ Carolina Comeback, so to speak, the party will need to make substantial gains in legislative races. The most efficient place to start would be the state’s most populous county, Wake.
Both the NC Free Enterprise Foundation and the Civitas Institute have just released their ratings of legislative districts based on electoral data from the 2012 cycle. The two ratings differ somewhat in methodology but there is a lot of overlap in the results. If you lay the two lists side-by-side, one thing immediately leaps out at you: Wake County is a natural battleground in the contest for control of the General Assembly.
For example, two of the eight House districts Civitas considers to be swing seats are in Wake: District 41 (now held by Republican Tom Murry) and District 49 (now held by Republican Jim Fulghum). The only two true swing seats in the Senate by Civitas calculations are also in or include Wake County: District 15 (now held by Republican Neal Hunt) and District 18 (now held by Republican Chad Barefoot).
The NCFEF rankings produce Wake-heavy outcomes, as well. In the House, NCFEF includes District 41 and District 49 in a list of nine “competitive” seats across the state. One of its three competitive Senate seats is District 18.
If you expand the focus beyond true swing seats to include seats that lean Republican but can still be competitive for Democrats in a neutral or modestly favorable statewide electoral cycle, Civitas counts a total of 16 potential Democratic pickups in the House and five in the Senate. NCFEF counts 22 in the House and 11 in the Senate. Additional Wake seats that make the cut in both ranking systems include District 35 (Chris Malone), District 36 (Nelson Dollar), and District 40 (Marilyn Avila) in the House and District 17 (Tamara Barringer) in the Senate.
What all this means is that for Democrats, Wake County is probably their best potential investment of time and resources in 2014. A strong countywide turnout of the party base, aided by liberal-leaning media coverage and pro-Democratic interest groups in the capital city, could produce sizable gains in both chambers.
The Democrats’ best-remaining options are distributed across the state in smaller chunks: several seats in the Sandhills and on the Outer Banks, a couple of House seats to the north and east of the Triangle, a House seat in Mecklenburg, retiring Sen. Thom Goolsby’s open seat in New Hanover, and three House seats in the mountains.
It’s too early to judge whether Democrats will be able to capitalize on these opportunities. Candidate filing isn’t over and fundraising numbers won’t really tell the tale until later in the year.
But it’s not too early to know where the action is likely to be. Democrats have gotten their Wake-up call.
February 17, 2014 at 9:01 am
Rip Arrowood says:
You sound as though you're trying to get your licks in before the Feds drop the hammer on the Republicans over their cozy relationship with Duke Energy.
Gloating after buying elections with outside money and gerrymandering is going to come back to haunt you.
The wake-up call for Republicans is going to be historic.
February 17, 2014 at 2:24 pm
Richard Bunce says:
Thank you Rip for confirming that money and gerrymandering is no match for the voters. So stop wasting your time trying to use the coercive power of government to deny people their First Amendment speech protections.
February 18, 2014 at 9:17 am
Rip Arrowood says:
Who's been denied First Amendment speech....?
February 18, 2014 at 11:40 am
Richard Bunce says:
Before USSC CU persons speaking within a for profit corporate structure using corporate resources did not have full First Amendment speech protections. Persons speaking within a non profit corporate structure were did not have limited First Amendment speech protection so the fact that it was a corporate structure was clearly not the issue. Persons performing press functions within a for profit corporate structure using corporate resources also did not have limited First Amendment press protections so for profit corporations was not the issue either.
February 17, 2014 at 10:18 am
Norm Kelly says:
So much potential power concentrated in such a small area (Wake County). So many liberal media outlets in the same area to repeat the Demon talking points over & over & over. Often enough to make one sick. It's going to take a lot of effort on the part of Republicans to unite against the onslaught of liberal media coverage. We can count on the N&D to support no one but Demons. Regardless of their history, positions on topics, potential illegal fundraising, union involvement, or anything else that's behind the curtain, the N&D will strongly support the Demon candidates.
It's also likely that WRAL will provide more favorable coverage to the DemocRAT candidates statewide than to any Republican. Stories by people like WRAL but not limited to them will simply state that voter intimidation and black voter suppression under the new voter id rules will have a negative impact on voter turn out and they will ask the Republican on the panel what their thoughts are on overturning this obvious attempt to distort voter turnout. They will ask, with clear implication, if the Republican on the panel supports attempts at suppressing black voters. They will also ask the Republican on the panel if they beleive it's time to make redistricting an independent panel activity, since it's so obvious that Republicans drew maps to not only suppress black vote, but to cause a virtual lock by Republicans and totally against federal election laws. This will be stated as fact, expecting the Republican to respond to these facts.
This is the way media outlets will treat Republicans. They also will refuse to ask DemocRATs about their thoughts on the socialization of America by the Demon party, the expansion of national debt, the expansion of special treatment for designated classes of people continuing the attempt by DemocRATs to pit one group against another.
Republicans truly have work cut out for them.
February 17, 2014 at 5:55 pm
Bill Worley says:
When you continuously refer to a group of human beings as Demons, I know you are an idiot and stop reading.
