Divided government and 2024

Published November 23, 2022

Well, the leadership of both parties in the U.S. House is changing. Democrats will be led by Hakeem Jeffries and Kevin McCarthy will probably be Speaker, though that’s still not certain. Democrats, led nationally by Joe Biden, will push for legislation that helps Americans. Republicans, led by crazy, will investigate Hunter Biden and a host other perceived enemies. MAGA is the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats.

Republican control of the House without a large enough majority to actually govern is the best scenario for Democrats heading into 2024. Marjorie Taylor Green will have a prominent voice in the GOP caucus, scaring regular Americans away from the GOP. Lauren Boebert will take no lessons from her near-loss in a safe district and continue spew her bile. McCarthy, with an ungovernable caucus, will put his poor political skills on national display.

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign will further complicate GOP ambitions. He will almost certainly have a primary and the GOP could be split between its conservative traditionalists and reactionary populists. While the conservatives will continue to vote for Trump if he gets the nomination, the reactionaries are likely to reject an establishment candidate because Trump is willing to burn it all down. They should have taken care of him when they had the chance.

Democrats have an opportunity to establish themselves as the moderate party in the country, governing seriously and working to make the country better for most Americans. Divided government will prevent them from getting much accomplished over the next two years, but they can showcase their priorities and agenda to the public.

Americans want more affordable health care, higher minimum wages, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, legal abortion, and accessible college. In contrast, they don’t want the non-stop investigations of peripheral political players and imaginary scandals that have little impact on their lives. They also don’t want bans on abortion. For two years, we’re going to see both sides promoting their values and agendas without a whole lot of action.

Over the next two years, the bills passed in 2022 will begin to take effect. Infrastructure projects will help keep unemployment low while Americans will see improvements to roads, bridges, and broadband. Seniors will see their prescription costs decrease. Inflation is headed down and projected to be within the Federal Reserve’s two percent target by the end of next year, just in time for the 2024 election to begin in earnest. The 2024 presidential election will give voters a clear contrast between the Democrats and Republicans, shaped by two years of arguments without results, a strong economy, low inflation, and the implementation of bills that were passed in 2022. Divided government may leave Democrats in the strongest position they’ve held since 2008.