Double down on conservative victories

Published May 7, 2016

by John Hood, Syndicated columnist and NC SPIN panelist, published in National Review, May 5, 2016.

Given Donald Trump’s manifest weaknesses, Hillary Clinton is likely to be the next president of the United States. I don’t say that with anything other than disappointment, apprehension, and disgust. I don’t relish the prospect of a left-wing Supreme Court and federal judiciary, a U.S. Senate back under the control of left-wing Democrats, and four more years of regulatory recklessness at home and military fecklessness abroad.

But I also believe that conservatives are the original — and only — reality-based community. Our movement constitutes an alliance of those who accept unchangeable facts rather than trying to wish fantasy into reality, remake human nature, or avoid economic tradeoffs. Traditionalists embrace timeless morals, even when they deny one immediate gratification. Libertarians embrace the sovereignty of consumer demand and the sometimes-disorienting effects of economic change, even when the result isn’t to one’s personal liking. And hawks embrace the reality that America lives in a dangerous neighborhood, one full of bullies, pirates, and fanatics who respond to gestures of good will with contempt, larceny, and brutality.

Here are the brutal facts of the present moment. Unless indicted, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and enter the presidential election as the favorite. While disliked and distrusted by most American voters, she will be running against a man whom voters not only dislike and distrust more, but also doubt has the experience and temperament to be president. I don’t need to be lectured about the adverse consequences of the probable outcome. Nor am I inclined to listen to dour pessimists or “Remnant” fantasists. Instead, I’m ready to start setting the stage for our next victories. Conservatism is a coalition of leaders and activists who advocate timeless ideas, not passing fads. We may need to refine how to apply these ideas to modern challenges and how to market them to modern audiences. At a political level, we may need new processes and institutions for identifying, training, and electing people with real leadership qualities, rather than settling for flimflammers, blowhards, or hypocrites.

But conservatism is not in an existential crisis. Keep in mind that we have more principled, effective conservatives in public office than ever before in our lifetimes, thanks to historic gains in Congress and especially in state and local government. Not coincidentally, we also have more conservative institutions, grassroots networks, research institutes, and media outlets. Our movement has big challenges, yes, but also tremendous successes and exciting opportunities.

Conservative and libertarian donors, large and small, made major investments over decades to help build these institutions, networks, and leadership pipelines across the country. Intellectuals, activists, communicators, and politicians skillfully turned these investments into victories and accomplishments. At the state level, conservative governors and legislatures have rewritten tax codes, pared back regulations, reformed welfare programs that discouraged work and family formation, and expanded consumer choice and competition in education and health care. At the local level, a new generation of leaders is devising a new conservative agenda that embraces market innovations such as Uber and Airbnb as well as the cultural and geographical diversity of the 21st century.

Although happy about the likely result of federal elections this year, the American Left is profoundly worried about the Right’s recent and sustained advances elsewhere. That’s why liberal politicians, bureaucrats, and judges are trying desperately to silence conservative and libertarian groups by targeting their donors and curtailing their freedoms of speech and association. The Left is also trying to expand and perfect its own state-based networks of organizations and activists as a counterweight.

Do such networks really make a difference? Absolutely. Don’t take my word for it. A just-released study in the Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law by three Harvard researchers confirmed the effect. After constructing a statistical model to explain why some states have expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act while others have resisted massive federal and special-interest lobbying to do so, the researchers found three explanatory factors. One was partisan control of legislatures and governorships, of course. But some Republican-led states have nonetheless expanded Medicaid. How come? It turns out that the strength of conservative networks — measured by the heft of state think tanks and Americans for Prosperity chapters, the share of lawmakers who are members of the American Legislative Exchange Council, and the extent of assistance rendered by a Florida-based think tank, the Foundation for Government Accountability, that specializes in Medicaid — makes a big difference. So does the extent to which state chambers of commerce lobby for Medicaid expansion, which reflects how well (or how poorly) conservative business leaders combat special-interest pressure within their own associations.

Sometimes there is no alternative but to fight a losing battle against overwhelming odds. Still, some on our side seem actually to enjoy it. They like to tell the resulting war stories, often to unwitting donors in direct-mail appeals. Perhaps it’s my middle age showing, but I have little interest in producing or listening to glorious sagas about bright, shining defeats. I prefer wins in prose over losses in poetry. I want our movement to continue to craft and implement proven strategies for success over time. That means marshaling scarce resources, gathering intelligence, declining battle on the adversary’s chosen ground, and attacking the adversary at its weakest point.

Right now, the Left’s weakest points lie outside of Washington. Politically, there are thousands of state and local offices on the ballot this year and in 2018. Intellectually, there are at least as many opportunities to make our case to the public and to enact public policies that advance our agenda. There are many investors, leaders, and activists ready to do their part to clinch these victories in the coming months and years. What about you?