Drawing new districts is a terrible idea

The North Carolina General Assembly is about to redraw the state’s congressional districts for the 2026 elections. It will be the fourth-such map employed this decade — and a terrible idea.

Lawmakers aren’t responding to new census data or a court order. As is patently obvious, they are responding to pressure from President Donald Trump. He wants as many Republican-controlled legislatures as possible to redistrict their states in an attempt to keep Democrats from winning a majority in the US House of Representatives next year.

When announcing their redistricting session, GOP leaders cited as justification a scheme by California Gov. Gavin Newsom to impose a new map that would likely add more Democrats to his state’s House delegation. Newsom is, indeed, brazenly attempting to bypass California’s redistricting rules. But the governor is doing so in response to a brazen gerrymander demanded by Trump and enacted by Gov. Greg Abbott and the Texas legislature.

None of these gerrymanders is defensible. Furthermore, because California has a formal redistricting commission, Newsom’s end run won’t happen unless voters approve a ballot proposition next month. Democrats are so nervous about its prospects that former President Barack Obama is appearing in endorsement ads. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed California’s redistricting reforms, is urging voters to reject the proposition.

Will North Carolina’s new congressional districts be truly contingent on the success of Newsom’s gerrymander?

Since Republicans won their General Assembly majorities in 2010 — running in districts drawn by the previous Democratic majority — they’ve enacted monumental reforms of taxation, regulation, education, transportation, and other public policies. As a result, I truly believe, North Carolina has become a better place to live, work, invest, form families, and create new enterprises.

On redistricting, however, the legislature has failed to lock in and build on prior reforms. After the then-Democratic majority attempted an egregious gerrymander in 2001, plaintiffs sued to enforce the state constitution’s requirement that counties not be split into different legislative districts unless required by federal law. When resolving the resulting Stephenson v. Bartlettcase, the North Carolina Supreme Court imposed some order on a previously unbounded process and forbade the use of ludicrously elongated or misshapen districts.

But these standards applied only to legislative districts encompassing more than one county. In the run-up to the 2010 election cycle, I was part of a multi-partisan coalition pressing the Democratic majority to go further, to adopt compactness as a standard within counties, as well, while also imposing constraints on congressional districts and the misuse of partisan data. We wanted, as much as possible, for voters to pick their lawmakers rather than lawmakers pick their voters.

Democrats refused. When I urged them to think of redistricting reform as an insurance policy against a catastrophic loss — in this case, having to run in districts drawn by some future Republican legislature — they laughed in my face. Democrats dismissed the prospect entirely. Then they lost, and kept losing, to their great regret.

Now, the roles are reversed. I urge Republican leaders to consider the precedent they are setting. What if Democrats have a fantastic election cycle in 2026? It could happen. By redrawing the congressional map to try to add another GOP seat to North Carolina’s delegation next year, the General Assembly will make one of the 10 seats currently held by Republicans less safe. The levees will be lower. A Democratic wave could swamp them.

More generally, what if an enormous wave creates Democratic legislative majorities in a future cycle? Under this new precedent, they wouldn’t have to wait until a post-census year to redraw the congressional map to their advantage. And whatever they say now, many Democrats will insist on gerrymandering the legislative districts, too.

Electoral districts should serve the interests of voters, not candidates. North Carolinians shouldn’t be repeatedly shoved from one constituency to another, or have their right to choose their own representatives attenuated by artificial constraints on partisan competition. Instead of redrawing, Republicans should be reforming.

John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His books Mountain Folk, Forest Folk, and Water Folk combine epic fantasy and American history.