To commemorate High Point University’s centennial anniversary, the 100th HPU Poll asked North Carolinians for their thoughts about the distant future, 100 years from now, on a variety of topics. Since the first poll was conducted in 2010, the HPU Survey Research Center has fielded 100 polls.
Overall, the poll found that:
- Most N.C. residents say the U.S. likely will have dealt successfully with access to clean water, energy shortages and cancer 100 years from now.
- Nearly half (47%) of N.C. residents say in 100 years Americans will have discovered life on other planets.
- A majority of North Carolinians (55%) say in 100 years AI will play a major role in creating animated films.
Here’s a more in-depth look at the results.
Dealing with Major Problems
A majority of respondents said they thought in 100 years, the United States would “very likely” or “somewhat likely” have dealt successfully with the problems of access to clean water (60%), energy shortages (55%), cancer (54%), terrorist threats (53%), foreign military threats (53%) and hunger and food insecurity (50%). Less than half of respondents said they expected successful solutions for traffic on roads (48%), climate change (44%), violent crime (41%), obesity (40%), drug addiction (39%), and homelessness (39%).
Extraterrestrial Contact
In 100 years, less than a majority of respondents to the 100th HPU Poll said they think Americans would have discovered life on other planets (47%), confirmed life forms from other planets have visited earth (43%), established a colony on the moon (33%), established a colony on another planet (32%), and learned from extraterrestrial visitors how to make new technologies (29%). However, a large majority of respondents (70%) think Americans would not have elected the first U.S. President born on another planet 100 years from now.
Role of Artificial Intelligence in Creative Fields
More than half (55%) said artificial intelligence (AI) will play a major part in creating animated films 100 years from now. Many respondents also think that in 100 years, AI will play a major part in producing college-level textbooks (45%), adapting books into live action movies (43%), writing popular music (40%), creating sequels for older movies (40%), composing music for orchestras (39%), adapting older dramatic scripts for new audiences (38%), writing novels (37%), and writing plays to be performed by people (37%).
Government use of Robots and AI
Majorities of North Carolinians believe that 100 years from now governments will rely more on technology like robots and AI to spy on foreign governments (67%), monitor the actions of average citizens (64%), check the backgrounds of government job applicants (63%), monitor the actions of convicted criminals (62%), plan military attacks (56%), deliver mail (54%), plan and deliver government services (52%), build roads (51%), and create budgets (50%). Less than half think governments will rely more on technology like robots and AI to respond to citizen concerns (45%) and write laws (38%) in 100 years.
When asked about wars in 100 years, 41% said there will be more wars going on in the world than today, while only 12% said fewer wars than today, and 34% think it would be about the same number of wars as today.
22nd Century Families
The 100th HPU Poll asked North Carolinians about relationships and families 100 years from now. A majority (54%) of respondents think more people will rely on technology like dating applications to meet romantic partners 100 years from now. Only 13% said people will rely less on that technology and 22% said they expect it will be about the same as now.
When asked about marriage 100 years from now, a majority (54%) said people will be less likely to marry than now. About one-quarter (23%) said people will marry at about the same rate as now and 13% say people will be more likely to get married.
Respondents were divided on whether they thought the divorce rate would be higher (38%) or about the same (38%) in 100 years as it is today. Only 12% of respondents said they think the divorce rate will be lower in 100 years.
A majority (54%) of respondents said that on average, in 100 years, people will have fewer children than they have today. About one-quarter (23%) said they think people will have about the same number of children in 100 years and 14% said they think people will have more.
NC residents – 100 Years from Now… (January 2024)
Now we would like to ask you about the distant future, 100 years from now. Please rate how likely you think it is that the United States will have dealt successfully with these challenges 100 years from now…very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all? [Items presented in a random order]
| Very likely | Somewhat likely | Not too likely | Not at all likely | Unsure | |
| Cancer | 22 | 32 | 23 | 15 | 9 |
| Access to clean water | 21 | 39 | 20 | 11 | 8 |
| Energy shortages | 20 | 35 | 25 | 13 | 8 |
| Terrorist threats | 20 | 33 | 24 | 14 | 10 |
| Traffic on roads | 19 | 29 | 28 | 16 | 8 |
| Foreign military threats | 18 | 35 | 23 | 15 | 10 |
| Hunger and food insecurity | 18 | 32 | 25 | 17 | 7 |
| Climate change | 17 | 27 | 26 | 20 | 11 |
| Violent crime | 17 | 24 | 31 | 18 | 9 |
| Obesity | 16 | 24 | 30 | 22 | 8 |
| Drug addiction | 16 | 23 | 30 | 22 | 8 |
| Homelessness | 14 | 25 | 30 | 22 | 9 |
In 100 years, which of these things do you think Americans will have done? [Items presented in a random order]
| Yes | No | Unsure | |
| Discovered life on other planets | 47 | 30 | 23 |
| Confirmed that life forms from other planets have visited earth | 43 | 35 | 23 |
| Established a colony on the moon | 33 | 47 | 20 |
| Established a colony on another planet | 32 | 47 | 21 |
| Learned from extraterrestrial visitors how to make new technologies | 29 | 47 | 24 |
| Elected the first U.S. President born on another planet | 13 | 70 | 17 |
One hundred years from now, do you think artificial intelligence will play a major part, minor part, or no part at all in doing each of these things: [Items presented in a random order]
| Major part | Minor part | No part at all | Unsure | |
| Creating animated films | 55 | 23 | 9 | 13 |
| Producing college-level textbooks | 45 | 29 | 11 | 15 |
| Adapting books into live action movies | 43 | 29 | 13 | 15 |
| Writing popular music | 40 | 30 | 16 | 14 |
| Creating sequels for older movies | 40 | 30 | 13 | 16 |
| Composing music for orchestras | 39 | 31 | 14 | 16 |
| Adapting older dramatic scripts for new audiences | 38 | 30 | 14 | 18 |
| Writing novels | 37 | 31 | 16 | 16 |
| Writing plays to be performed by people | 37 | 31 | 16 | 16 |
One hundred years from now, do you think governments will rely more, less or about the same on technology like robots and artificial intelligence to do each of these things:
[Items presented in a random order]
| More | Less | About the same | Unsure | |
| Spy on foreign governments | 67 | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| Monitor the actions of average citizens | 64 | 8 | 16 | 12 |
| Check the backgrounds of government job applicants | 63 | 10 | 16 | 11 |
| Monitor the actions of convicted criminals | 62 | 11 | 15 | 12 |
| Plan military attacks | 56 | 12 | 16 | 15 |
| Deliver mail | 54 | 14 | 19 | 14 |
| Plan and deliver government services | 52 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| Build roads | 51 | 13 | 22 | 14 |
| Create budgets | 50 | 15 | 20 | 15 |
| Respond to citizen concerns | 45 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| Write laws | 38 | 18 | 26 | 18 |
Do you think that in 100 years there will be more wars going on in the world than today, fewer wars than today or about the same number of wars as today?
More wars – 41%
About the same number of wars – 34%
Fewer wars – 12%
Unsure – 13%
One hundred years from now, do you think people will rely more, less or about the same on technology like dating applications to meet romantic partners?
More – 54%
Less – 13%
About the same – 22%
Unsure – 12%
Do you think 100 years from now people will be more likely to get married, less likely to get married or marry at about the same rate as they do today?
More likely to marry – 13%
Marry about the same rate as now – 23%
Less likely to marry – 54%
Unsure – 10%
Do you think that 100 years from now the divorce rate will be higher than today or lower or will it not be much different than now?
Higher – 38%
About the same – 38%
Lower – 12%
Unsure – 12%
On average, do you think 100 years from now people will have more children, fewer children or about the same number of children they have today?
More children – 14%
About the same number of children – 23%
Fewer children – 54%
Unsure – 10%
HPU Poll 100 was fielded by the High Point University Survey Research Center on Jan. 16 through Jan. 26 as an online survey using a panel of respondents recruited and maintained by Dynata. Dynata sent invitations to its panel of N.C. respondents and the SRC collected 1,042 responses on its Qualtrics platform. The SRC did all data analysis. The online sample is from a panel of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results. In this case, the SRC provides a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 3.0 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.2 (based on the weighting). The data is weighted toward population estimates for age, gender, race, ethnicity and education based on U.S. Census numbers for North Carolina. Factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional errors into the findings of opinion polls. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding.
Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past surveys can be found at the Survey Research Center website. Materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.
The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative.
Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald is the associate director of the HPU Poll.
