ECU polls shows opposition to impeachment and removal, presidential election a toss up and Biden leads Democrats

Published October 16, 2019

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North Carolina Statewide Poll: More Oppose Impeachment Than Favor It, But State Remains Toss- Up for 2020 Election. Biden Still Leads Among Dems

Peter L. Francia and Jonathan S. Morris
Key Findings

  • 50% of registered voters in North Carolina oppose the impeachment and removal of President Trump from office compared to 44% who favor it.

    More than 80% of self-identified Democrats favor impeachment compared to 9% of Republicans and 36% of independents and unaffiliated registered voters.

  • However, only 44% of registered voters in North Carolina think that President Trump should be re-elected compared to 51% who think it is time for someone else to be president.

  • North Carolina is near evenly split on President Trump’s job performance, with 45% who approve and 47% who disapprove.

  • Among Democrats, former Vice President Joe Biden leads at 29%, ahead of Bernie Sanders (19%), Elizabeth Warren (17%), Andrew Yang (9%), Kamala Harris (8%), Pete Buttigieg (4%), Beto O’Rourke (4%), Amy Klobuchar (3%), Cory Booker (1%), and Julian Castro (1%).

  • In head-to-head matchups against some of the top Democratic contenders, Trump currently sits in a virtual tie in North Carolina, roughly 13 months from Election Day.

    Trump vs. Biden: Trump 46.4%, Biden 49.7% (Biden +3.3)
    Trump vs. Sanders: Trump 47.7%, Sanders 48.5% (Sanders +0.8) Trump vs. Warren: Trump 48.5%, Warren 47.6% (Trump +0.9)
    Trump vs. Harris: Trump 49.3%, Harris 46.9% (Trump +2.4)
    Trump vs. Buttigieg: Trump 49.4%, Buttigieg 46.8% (Trump +2.6)

As House Democrats in the U.S. Congress move forward with an impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump, a new North Carolina statewide poll from the registered voters (50%) opposed to the impeachment and removal of President Trump from office than those in favor (44%). Partisan divisions are substantial, with more than 80% of self- identified Democrats in favor of impeaching and removing President Trump from office compared to 9% of Republicans and 36% of independents and unaffiliated registered voters. The results are based on data collected from 1,076 registered voters in North Carolina who completed the survey during the period of October 2-9. The credibility interval, much like a

Although registered voters in North Carolina weigh more on the side of not impeaching and removing President Trump from office, a majority of registered voters in North Carolina currently does not support his re-election. Approximately 51% think it is time for someone other than Donald Trump to be President of the United States, while 44% think he deserves reelection. President Trump continues to draw dedicated support from Republican voters: 79% believe he should be reelected compared to only 12% of Democratic voters. Independents and unaffiliated voters are more closely divided: Some 48% believe President Trump should be reelected compared to 44% who do not think the president deserves reelection.

Registered voters in North Carolina are further divided over President Trump’s job performance. The president’s approval currently stands at 45% in North Carolina, with disapproval at 47%. Approval remains extremely high among Republicans (81%), very low among Democrats (14%), and more evenly split among independents and unaffiliated voters (47%).

Among registered voters in North Carolina who plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, former Vice President Joe Biden leads all candidates at 29%. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is next at 19% along with Senator Elizabeth Warren at 17%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Senator Kamala Harris round out the top five at 9% and 8% respectively. The remaining candidates include South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4%, former Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 4%, Senator Amy Klobuchar at 3%, Senator Cory Booker at 1%, and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro at 1%.

In head-to-head matchups against some of the top Democratic presidential contenders, President Trump currently sits in a virtual tie in North Carolina. Among five potential opponents (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg), Trump’s largest lead in North Carolina comes against Pete Buttigieg (2.6 percentage points), while his largest deficit comes against Joe Biden (3.3 percentage points). Of course, both matchups fall within the margin of error, as do Trump versus Sanders, Trump versus Warren, and Trump versus Harris. In short, there is currently a statistical tie between Donald Trump and any of his potential Democratic opponents.

Methodology

This poll was conducted October 2-9, 2019. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,076, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The data were weighted by age, education, race, gender, party affiliation, and 2016 election modeling. The results based on party affiliation carry with them a higher margin of error due to the smaller sample size. Data were collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=781) and an online panel provided by Lucid (n=295).

About the Authors

Peter L. Francia, Ph.D., is Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research and is professor of political science at East Carolina University.

Jonathan S. Morris, Ph.D., is Senior Polling Scientist of the ECU Center for Survey Research and is professor of political science at East Carolina University.

For press inquiries, please contact either Dr. Francia at 252-328-6126 or Dr. Morris at 252-328-1067.