Election Postmortem
Published November 11, 2016
By Tom Campbell
by Tom Campbell, Executive Producer and Moderator, NC SPIN, November 10, 2016.
We will be dissecting Tuesday’s elections for months to come but there are some immediate takeaways from the outcomes. With three notable exceptions it was a great year for Republicans in North Carolina.
Few predicted a convincing Donald Trump national presidential victory. He defied long-standing political beliefs and practices in an unprecedented and historic victory. Neither the political parties, most elected officials, nor the media or pollsters recognized the depth of the anger, distrust and desire for change among white middle class voters. Trump alone did. Even those who didn’t like his bombastic personality embraced his call to “drain the swamp” and responded to fears that the next president would nominate as many as three new Supreme Court Justices. Trump’s coattails guaranteed that Republicans maintained control of the U.S. House and Senate.
Exception one: Republican Pat McCrory may be the first North Carolina governor to be defeated seeking re-election. Out of 4.6 million votes cast Roy Cooper won by only 5,000, however this contest isn’t final. Some 8,000 provisional ballots have to be tallied, there are questions about Durham County’s election results and you can be assured a recount will be requested. The courts might ultimately decide the gubernatorial outcome.
Why did the incumbent governor get fewer North Carolina votes than either Trump or the reelected Senator Richard Burr? When the dust settles it will be the fallout from HB2 that did McCrory in. As Beverly Perdue learned, Cooper will face unique circumstances. Republicans actually gained a seat in the NC House and maintained firm control over the Senate, setting up a very interesting 2017 legislative session that assures a Cooper veto can be overturned.
For the first time in our lifetimes the Council of State will have 6 Republicans and 4 Democrats, assuming Tuesday’s outcomes stand. Republicans picked off the office of State Treasurer, the Commissioner of Insurance and Superintendent of Public Instruction, while retaining the Lt. Governor, Commissioner of Labor and Commissioner of Agriculture.
Exception two was Democrat Josh Stein winning the Attorney General’s office. We suspect Buck Newton’s close association to HB2 spelled his defeat.
The third exception came from the Supreme Court contest. Democrat Mike Morgan had more than a 300,000-vote plurality over incumbent Justice Bob Edmunds. Some speculate voters didn’t know either candidate and since Morgan’s name appeared first on the ballot (with no listed party affiliation) they chose Morgan. But it may have resulted from the shenanigans the legislature tried to pull to allow Edmunds to stand for a confirmation vote rather than face a human competitor, legislation that was overturned by Edmund’s own Supreme Court colleagues for being unconstitutional. Democrats will now hold a plurality on our highest court, the final arbiter to an ever-growing number of litigations resulting from Republican controlled legislation. Republicans won all the contests for the Court of Appeals, the only surprise being the defeat of incumbent Democrat Linda Stephens by Phil Berger, Jr. – likely a case where name recognition prevailed.
North Carolina turned a deeper red shade in 2016. It was not a good night for Democrats, who must now regroup, reevaluate their policies and constituencies. It should also be a wake-up call for pollsters, consultants and the mainstream media. The voters have spoken and we would all do well to heed their voices.
November 11, 2016 at 10:17 am
Bruce Stanley says:
Out of curiosity, who determined which name, Morgan or Edmunds, would come first on the ballot and how was that determined?
November 11, 2016 at 10:35 am
Bennie Lee says:
As most of the Democrats you have missed the mark.
I agree and a lot of others I talk to, over coffee at Bojangles, and the caller from Wilmington on PBR last Wednesday, the governor lost NOT because of HB2, but his association with Duke Power.
Duke is one of the largest monopolies in the USA and they keep getting bigger. Do you think, really, our fellow North Carolinian's really want people to pick and choose what toilet or locker room to go in on a daily basis? The people in grow up with, in Greensboro and Durham, wouldn't.
November 11, 2016 at 4:15 pm
Johnny Hiott says:
I don't believe McCrory lost (if indeed he did lose) due to HB2. I hope those reprobates in charlotte that started this entire debacle have been thrown out of office !
If indeed cooper (the evil male twin of hillary clinton) is elected governor of NC we are in deep trouble. I would hope the state legislature would gain the courage they totally lacked when he was refusing to defend the state over obamacare and a number of other lawsuits and remove him from office ! He certainly should have been fired from being attorney general of NC.
November 11, 2016 at 7:08 pm
Norm Kelly says:
'It was not a good night for Democrats,...' Thank GOD! 'who must now regroup, reevaluate their policies and constituencies.'
Demoncrats will NOT reevaluate their policies. Demoncrats do NOT believe their policies were rejected or ever have been rejected. Demoncrats believe that there are 2 reasons they lost. Too many racists voted. (Too many) white people are stupid. Not a single demon pol or candidate believes they have done anything wrong or stated any position wrong or supported the wrong socialist scheme. Demoncrats believe deep down that they know better, so it's the lack of intelligence on the part of too many voters that caused demons to be such losers.
As for constituencies, demons won't do much here either. They will continue to pander to blacks; misleading them as often as they can get away with. Demons will continue to refer to anyone who disagrees with their schemes 'racist', regardless of any lack of evidence of racism. Demons will continue to promise to fix all the ills that plague blacks while actually doing nothing to fix anything. So long as demons can refer to those who know to disagree with them as racist, and convince a majority of blacks that it is true, demons won't change a thing about this constituency. Then there's the 'hispanic' vote. Since pandering to blacks has worked so well for demons, they are trying the same tactics and schemes on 'hispanics'. Demons will continue to appeal to illegal aliens, trying to get them 'free' government services and benefits, while looking the other way while these misled vote for demon pols. Demons will try to instigate hatred among the LGBTRFEDIU groups as well. Whatever pandering and lying they can get away with, that these groups will accept, demons will do. Roy repeatedly stated that this election was not about 'one bad law', then went on to rant about how bad that specific law was. And it appears enough of this constituency came out of the closet to vote for him. So, while pandering works, demons refuse to change. Cuz they hope enough of these misled, low-information groups add up to a majority of minorities. Enough duped = demon success = national or state failure.
'It should also be a wake-up call for ... the mainstream media.' Yeah! That's gonna happen! Don't hold your breath or make any outrageous bets on this one! Since demons win by misleading, and the vast majority of 'mainstream' media are not just registered demons, voting demons, but actual allies of the demon party, they will continue to misreport, mislead, cover-up, and obfuscate. Just like demon pols, these allies of the demon party simply can not help themselves. To this day not just confused demons believe SAYING something negative about a woman is worse than actually DESTROYING some womans life, but their allies in the media also believe Trump is worse for making COMMENTS about women than Hildaliar and mate are for purposely DESTROYING womens lives. So, thinking people know that COMMENTS fade, actual sexual attacks and personal destruction lasts a life-time.
Those poor little snowflakes that are now so upset about the election outcome that they need 'professional' help are a sad group of people. Get over yourselves! When Obummer was elected TWICE by misinformed, low-information racists, the rest of us were told to adjust, stop whining, go away quietly. Now the shoe is on the other foot. So, sit down, stop whining, adjust, get on with life! Baby! Whining is so annoying! But, as demon snowflakes, can you do anything else? Whine. Scream racist. Whine. Scream racist. Whine some more. Repeat. Snowflake!
November 12, 2016 at 3:55 pm
Douglas Scott Treado says:
Goodbye to Edmunds...! And unlike what our "moderator" stated, it was not because his name was first on the ballot! So tired of NC Spin which basically is a GOP apologist and promoter of a bunch of nitwits! So glad too to see McCrory's demise...He too, an apologist for his former employer Duke Energy--and its continued pollution of NC--at so many sites statewide...The Dan River "spill" polluted 75 miles of that river's bottom--which connects to other important watersheds--and that was nearly 3 year ago!..Not to mention lawsuits pending in Wilmington and Asheville as well...I will no longer follow your program on PBS--which already has the other GOP mouthpiece format with "Front Row"...and our dear Marc R...Can't wait for your expected passing, as you've all done enough damage already....Why don't you ask for Trump's tax returns?!
November 12, 2016 at 8:12 pm
John Allen Jr says:
The State Employees and Retirees were left out of the Carolina Comeback. How big is that block of votes now?
