Elon Poll: People dislike Obamacare, disapprove of politicians

by Dr. Kenneth E. Fernandez and Dr. Jason A. Husser, Elon University, November 22, 2013.

The Elon University Poll conducted a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 681 registered voters on November 15-18, 2013. The survey has a margin of error of 3.76 percentage points and asks a battery of questions related to job performance of public officials and support or opposition to various public policies.

Approval Rating for President Barack Obama 

President Barack Obama’s approval rating continues to decline among registered voters in North Carolina. In February of this year the president saw approval ratings of over 47%. In April approval dropped to 45% and in September, the president saw a 6.5% drop in approval (38.4%). This most recent survey found only 37% approving and over 54% disapproving of the president’s performance. Barack Obama still has wide approval from Democrats and African-Americans, but that support has declined since September; from 79% to 71% for Democrats and from 83% to 75% for African Americans.

Approval Rating for Governor Pat McCrory 

Governor Pat McCrory also saw a drop in his approval rating. Only 33% of registered voters said they approve of the governor’s job performance, compared to 36% in September and 46% this past April. McCrory had relatively strong approval ratings from Republicans (64%), but approval from independents (29%) and Democrats (15%) was thin. Approval for the governor was lower among women (30%) than men (37%). Only 12% of African Americans approved of the governor’s job performance. This is a noticeable drop in African American support since September (22%) and April (38%).

Approval Rating for Congress 

For most of 2013 the approval rating for Congress seemed to increase slowly from historic lows. In February, approval for Congress was just above 10%. This increased to almost 12% in April and to almost 14% in September of this year. This positive trend reversed this month and approval ratings for Congress dropped to almost 8%, the lowest approval rating since the Elon Poll has asked this specific question.

Approval Ratings for Senators Hagan and Burr 

For most of the year the two United States Senators representing North Carolina had very similar approval ratings and approval for both Senators had remained stable over the previous three Elon University Polls. The results in this most recent November survey show some significant changes in approval ratings for the senators. This may not be much of a surprise given Congress’s low approval rating and the government shutdown in October. Although Senator Hagan’s approval numbers only declined by 1%, her disapproval numbers jumped up more than 8 percentage points. Senator Burr’s approval numbers dropped more than 6 points, while his disapproval numbers increased by almost 6 percentage points. Although Burr’s disapproval numbers increased to 33%, they are far lower than Hagan’s disapproval numbers (43.5%). When asked about Senator Burr’s job performance most respondents (35.5%) said they “didn’t know.” Far fewer respondents (19%) said “don’t know” when asked about Senator Hagan, a clear reaction to the fact that Hagan is running for reelection in 2014. Hagan’s approval rating among Democrats increased since September (from 56% to 63%), while Republican support for Senator Burr declined from 47% to 41%.

The 2014 U.S. Senate Republican Primary 

The November Poll asked respondents about three candidates in North Carolina who will face each other in the Republican Primary race for the U.S. Senate in May of 2014. Registered voters were asked if they recognized the names Thom Tillis, Mark Harris, and Greg Brannon. If a respondent said they recognized a name they were then given a follow up  question as to whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about the individual. Respondents were not told that the individual was running for any office.

The results show that although Thom Tillis’s name recognition is fairly low (28%) and even declined by about 3 points since September, he is much better known in the state than his opponents. Only 17% of registered voters recognized the name Mark Harris and less than 10% of respondents recognized the name Greg Brannon. Thom Tillis’s small drop in name recognition may not be surprising given that the North Carolina General Assembly is no longer in session and state and national attention on some of the controversial laws coming out of the General Assembly has started to decline. The most surprising finding was that there was almost no difference in name recognition for Tillis, Harris, and Brannon among Democrats, Independents and Republicans.

Nineteen percent (19%) of those who said they had heard of Thom Tillis went on to say they had a favorable opinion of the Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives. Thirty-two percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of Tillis, while over 46% said they didn’t know or had neither a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tillis. Republicans were much more likely to have a favorable opinion of Tillis (37%), but that has dropped since September (44%).

Of the approximately 17% of registered voters who recognized the name Mark Harris over 25% had a favorable opinion of  the minister from Charlotte, compared to less than 18% with an unfavorable opinion. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Harris, compared to 24% for Democrats and 22% for Independents. Of the 17% who recognized Mark Harris’s name, most (56%) could not say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidate. Of the approximately 10% of registered voters who recognized the name Greg Brannon over 27% had a favorable opinion of the doctor from Cary, compared to 24% with an unfavorable opinion. Forty-seven percent (47%) could not say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidate.

Approval Rating for the General Assembly 

Although approval for the General Assembly in Raleigh is much higher than it is for the U.S. Congress, approval remains fairly low. Fewer than 32% of voters said they approve of the state legislature’s job performance, which is similar to what the Elon University Poll found in September, April and February of this year. Unlike approval ratings for Congress, there are strong partisan differences in approval of the General Assembly. Only 17% of Democrats approve of the state legislature compared to 32% of Independents and 50% of Republicans. Approval of the General Assembly tended to be lower among women (25%) than men (39%) and lower among African Americans (21%) than whites (35%).

Reputation of North Carolina as a Good Place to Live 

Most registered voters felt the national reputation of North Carolina as a good place to live has gotten worse (43%), compared to 34% who said it has stayed the same and 21% who felt the state’s reputation has improved. Republicans were more likely to think the state’s reputation has improved (29%), compared to 19% of Independents, and 16% of Democrats. Women were more likely (48%) to say the state’s reputation has been tarnished than men (37%). Younger respondents (age 18-30) were more likely to say North Carolina’s reputation has gotten worse.

Most Important Issue 

Healthcare or Obamacare (24%) was the most frequent response to the open-ended question, “what do you think is the most important issue in the United States.” This was a 15% increase since September. This increase seems to be an obvious reaction to the increased media attention on healthcare and the problems plaguing the Affordable Care Act implementation and website, along with the controversy surrounding the reports of people not able to keep their prior insurance plans. The economy was a close second, with 21%, followed by a related issue; jobs and unemployment (13%), followed then by the budget and debt (10%).

Voter Identification 

Sixty-five percent (65%) of registered voters support the law requiring photo identification in order to vote. This is a 5 point drop in support since September. Republicans (96%) are the most supportive of a voter id law, followed by Independents (68%), then Democrats (36%). Although Republican support for the law has increased by 2%, support among Independents and Democrats has dropped 6 percentage points.

September was the first time the Elon Poll found that a majority of Democrats and African Americans oppose photo identification requirements in order to vote. In prior polls a majority of both Democrats and African Americans supported the voter ID law. This recent poll confirms that a growing majority (62%) of Democrats and African Americans (69%) oppose the voter identification law.

Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) 

Over half of registered voters (53.6%) believe the Affordable Care Act will make the healthcare situation in North Carolina worse. This is a 4 percentage point increase since September. Only 30% said it would make things better, while 12% said it wouldn’t make much difference. A majority (58%) of Democrats believe it will make healthcare better in North Carolina, while only 24 percent of Independents and 5% of Republicans felt the  same way. Women (34%) were more likely than men (27%) to think the Affordable Care Act would make things better, but still almost half of women said it would make things worse. African Americans were more optimistic about healthcare reform than whites, with 55% believing Obamacare would improve healthcare in North Carolina (compared to 23% of whites). This is a 9 percent decline in optimism among African Americans since September.