Gay marriage ruling is X factor in Hagan-Tillis Senate race

by Rob Christensen, News and Observer, October 14, 2014.

One of the biggest motivating factors in politics is anger.

It was anger about President Barack Obama, his health care plan, and what some perceived as his liberal overreach, that helped fuel the tea party movement that led to the Republican sweep in the 2010 election.

You could see the anger building as hundreds marched on then Democratic Rep. Brad Miller’s office on St. Mary’s Street to oppose passage of the Affordable Care Act.

It is anger over what some perceive as conservative overreach by the GOP-led legislature, that is helping Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, and could lead to major Democratic pick-ups in Wake County.

The anger was visible in the “Moral Monday” rallies as throngs showed up outside the Legislative Building to protest what House Speaker Thom Tillis called “the conservative revolution.”

‘Judicial tyranny’

Last week’s court decisions on gay marriages have introduced a potentially huge new X factor into North Carolina’s closely watched Senate race.

“Judicial tyranny,” declared Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, a leading political voice for social conservatives.

“If you don’t like this ruling, it is appropriate to take it out on Kay Hagan,” said Dallas Woodhouse of Carolina Rising.

Up until now, Tillis, the GOP Senate candidate, was having some difficulty rallying the conservative base. In the Republican primary he easily defeated a tea party candidate and a candidate from the party’s evangelical wing. But Tillis, a business conservative, has never won the full trust of the party’s social conservatives, and there was always a question about how strongly they would work for him and turn out at the polls.

But the legalization of gay marriages may have solved that problem.

Gay marriage is an issue on which people feel strongly about.

Tillis angered some social conservatives when he said in 2012 that he thought gay marriage would become a reality in 20 years, even though he opposed it. He was off by 18 years.

The lightning speed of the court decisions stunned many. And conservatives immediately sought to transform it into a campaign issue.

“This is why our U.S. Senate election is so important,’’ said Tami Fitzgerald of the North Carolina Values Coalition. “The U.S. Senate is responsible for confirming federal judges, and we don’t want Kay Hagan to continue appointing activist liberal judges like Judge Cogburn.”

3 courts own the decision

Judge Max Cogburn of the U.S. District Court of Western North Carolina was nominated by Obama on Hagan’s recommendation.

The key decision, however, was made earlier in the week by the U.S. Supreme Court, which has a Republican majority. The court declined to hear a case appealing a decision of the federal circuit court that such bans were unconstitutional.

Although the Supreme Court did not provide any reasoning, it let stand the decision of the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals that said gay marriage bans violated the 14th Amendment of the Constitution.

Forest sought last week to blame “the judicial fiat of one unelected man.”

But it is actually the decision of three courts – the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Va.; the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington; and the U.S. District Court in Asheville.

Forest knows it will be a much better applause line to denounce one Obama-appointed judge when he hits the rubber chicken circuit.

But Forest & Co. do point to a larger truth. Gay marriages were legalized through court decisions, rather than through the legislative process. And that could lead to some traditionalists feeling disenfranchised.

And that could leave some voters angry, with unforeseen consequences at the ballot box in November.