Good news! Bad news! Depends on who's releasing unemployment numbers
Published March 18, 2014
Editorial by News and Observer, March 17, 2014.
Dueling news releases today show just hard it is to figure out what’s in a number (or maybe show how easy it is to spin one).
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From the N.C. Justice Center:
MEDIA RELEASE: Drop in unemployment rate due largely to shrinking labor force
Only 4 out of every 10 formerly unemployed workers found employment over last year
RALEIGH (March 17, 2014) — North Carolina’s unemployment picture is weaker than it looks like on the surface, according to new numbers released by the N.C. Division of Employment Security today. Although the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7 percent in January, this is largely because the labor force continues to shrink, not because of significant gains in employment.
Over the last year, the labor force contracted by 105,600 workers, more than 1.3 percent, to the lowest levels in three years. Since the unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force, the unemployment rate can go down if the labor force shrinks, even if genuine joblessness remains high. And that’s what happened from January 2013 to January 2014—only 45,000 unemployed workers found employment over the last year. The rest just gave up and dropped out of the labor force. This means that just 4 out of every 10 workers who moved out of unemployment actually found jobs.
“Only 4 out of every 10 unemployed workers found jobs in the last year,” said Allan Freyer, Public Policy Analyst with the Budget & Tax Center, a project of the NC Justice Center. “If North Carolina is going to see a healthy long-term recovery in employment growth, we need to see all jobless workers moving into jobs, rather than out of the labor force.”
Five years into the recovery from the Great Recession, we would expect North Carolina to see a steadily accelerating rate of job creation each year, yet instead we see the opposite. The state created 70,000 jobs since last January, only 4,000 more jobs than were created over the same period from 2012 to 2013. But this was also 4,000 fewer jobs than were created over the same period from 2011 to 2012, suggesting that suggests that overall employment growth remains stagnant.
Most of the job growth we’re seeing in North Carolina appears due to overall improvements in the national economy, rather than something special happening in the Tarheel State. Over the last year, North Carolina saw employment growth of 1.7 percent—the same rate as the nation as a whole. In fact, 2013 marked the first year North Carolina saw a slower rate of job creation than the rest of the nation since 2010.
“In recent months, we’ve heard claims that policies enacted in the first half of 2013 generated extra special job growth in the second half of 2013. But the reality is far different,” Freyer said. “Across every meaningful measure of labor market progress, the second half of 2013 failed to perform better than the second half of 2012.”
Given seasonal hiring patterns, most economists prefer to compare the year-over-year. And when we compare the second half of 2012 to the same period in 2013, we find that 2012 performed better. There were 2,000 more jobs created from July 2012 to January 2013 than over the same period from 2013 to 2014, and 7,000 more unemployed workers found employment in 2012 than in 2013. It’s hard to see how something special happened in 2013.
Given the depth of job loss experienced by North Carolina during the recession, the state needs to create jobs at a much faster rate than the national average and its own recent historical performance. Along with creating more jobs overall, the state needs to create more, better jobs that pay enough to allow workers and their families to make ends meet. This is the only way to generate a true Carolina Comeback.
And from the office of Phil Berger:
Tillis, Berger Issue Joint Statement on N.C. Unemployment Rate Continuing to Drop at Faster Pace than National Average
Raleigh, N.C. – House Speaker Thom Tillis (R-Mecklenburg) and Senate Leader Phil Berger (R-Rockingham) issued the following joint statement Monday in response to North Carolina’s unemployment rate dropping to its lowest level since August 2008. This news indicates that, over the past year, the state’s 24 percent drop in unemployment rate has outpaced the national unemployment rate’s 16 percent drop during the same timeframe.
“Our state’s unemployment rate continues to drop at a faster pace than the national average – great news for North Carolinians trying to get back to work. We are proud to see the results of the fiscally conservative, pro-business policies that the General Assembly enacted over the past three years help North Carolina’s economy gain momentum.”
North Carolina added 45,000 jobs over the past year. Most recently, January’s 17,407 new jobs added show growth at a faster pace than previous months.
Since Republicans took control of the General Assembly in January 2011, the unemployment rate is down 3.7 percent, and North Carolina’s economy has created 190,275 new jobs.
March 18, 2014 at 10:56 am
Norm Kelly says:
Unfortunately NC does not live in a vacuum. Our state, like every other state, is affected by both state policies and federal policies. At the same time that our state is doing what it should to improve the general economy and increase job growth, the feds are doing just the opposite for us. They insist our state continues to pay extended unemployment benefits even though it puts us further into debt. They insist our state participate in socialized medicine. Regardless of how you think about socialized medicine there are 2 striking facts about it. First it creates extreme uncertainty in the market. This means that companies consider hiring versus the extra grief it causes them with the feds and the extra expense it causes because of the feds. Second, the guy it's named after knows it's such a disaster that he keeps violating the law by changing it. When Congress says that they will pass a law to make his dictatorial changes legal, his insane response is that he will veto the legislation. Whether this is illegal or not is not my point. Only libs think there's nothing wrong with it. Thinking people know that the unnameable one is actually breaking the law. But the bigger picture is that the guy the legislation is named after is admitting that it is and will continue to have a negative impact on the economy, employment, health care delivery, health insurance costs, and individual lives. That is exactly why he is changing it; violating the law. So, it's pretty meaningless that the NCGA is making our state a better environment to do business, to hire people, to expand their businesses when the feds are making it more difficult at a faster/higher rate. Our minor changes to improve things are overshadowed by a long shot by the idiocy coming out of the central planners. Our state, like every other state, is being held hostage by the central planners.
If it were only possible for us to put the central planners back in their place, make them follow the Constitution, then perhaps our state would be in a position to improve things here. We could make changes that could have a positive impact. Like lowering income taxes, making them more fair by having a flatter/flat income tax rate. Like implementing sales tax policies that cover more products/services but at a lower rate so that more people participate in the tax system. Like eliminating 'incentives' for companies to move here and making every business pay the same tax rate, without the state picking winners & losers. You know, what the libs call 'a level playing field'. Except libs actually don't know what this means; it's just an ad tag line for them. But if the NCGA could implement policies to create a true level playing field, where consumers pick winners & losers, without interference from the central planners, then perhaps our state policies COULD have a positive impact on individual lives. Freedom is a wonderful thing. Socialism has failure built in. Doubt me? Show me examples of successful socialism somewhere in the world. Anywhere. And don't go Mike Moore stupid on me. Be honest. Referencing Moore just once automatically invalidates your argument. So would a reference to Algore.
