Headwinds beyond their control

The conservative Carolinian Journal just published a new poll showing Roy Cooper 15 points ahead of Michael Whatley in the Senate race. That’s a big lead. Even in an off-year election that favors Democrats.

The folks steering Michael’s campaign see issues as the way to win. That’s not unusual. So Michael’s pummeling Roy on issues. But it hasn’t worked.

Back when Jim Hunt ran against Jesse Helms, we spent a year pummeling Hunt on issues. It didn’t work. And our pollster, Arthur Finkelstein, told us, It’s time you learned something new. You’re running the same kind of campaign you’ve run for years. But that won’t work against Hunt. We figured out that election wasn’t about issues.

This year's Senate Election may not be about issues either. It may be about Trump. Or broken politics. Or something else – maybe Michael’s got a credibility problem, voters simply don’t believe what he tells them about issues.

Whatever the reason, core Republican and Democrat voters are set in stone – they’ve made up their minds. Aren’t likely to budge. So Independents are the key. They’re the reason Cooper leads Whatley.

Less than a third of Independents approve of Trump while almost 70% turn thumbs down on him. Beyond that, unhappy with broken politics, Independents have a dim view of both parties. That may mean a candidate’s best strategy would be to offer Independents a cure to broken politics.

But, wed to Trump, Whatley’s folks can’t do that. With Trump in the White House they can’t say politics is broken. So they’ve bet on issues. But that leaves left them battling headwinds beyond their control – as Independents vote for Democrats.