Most NC voters think Cooper would back DSA policies

The headline of the most recent Carolina Journal Poll covering North Carolina’s open US Senate race was clearly Democrat Roy Cooper’s 15-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley.

Yet two other questions related to the major-party candidates deserve attention as well. Both address voters’ perceptions of the roles Cooper and Whatley would play on Capitol Hill.

The first question asked 608 likely general election voters to assess whether Cooper would support the Democratic Socialists of America’s policy priorities. DSA represents the most left-leaning branch of Democrats’ electoral coalition.

Cooper, a former two-term governor, has not pitched himself as a left-of-center candidate. His ads and campaign speeches have focused on “making stuff cost less” and defending his law-and-order track record.

But three out of five voters (60%) believe Cooper would support DSA policies if elected to the Senate. Some 35% answered “very likely.” More Republicans (74%) than Democrats (54%) and self-described independents (53%) answered “likely,” but all three groups clearly believed that Cooper was more likely than not to back DSA plans.

The youngest voters — 18- to 29-year-olds — are most likely to back DSA’s proposals for reshaping basic elements of American government and society. They were most skeptical among all age groups about Cooper’s DSA support. Yet 54% of them answered “likely.” Those from 30 to 44 had the highest rate (64%) of responses indicating Cooper would support democratic socialism. Those in the 69-year-old Cooper’s own age cohort (65+) aligned with the overall population, with 60% answering “likely.”

Among those who indicated they will vote for Cooper, 52% believe he is likely to support DSA policies. Some 80% of Whatley voters agree.

Regardless of the Cooper campaign’s message, then, it’s clear a majority of North Carolinians expect him to back — not block — his party’s most left-leaning activists.

On the other side of the race, the Carolina Journal Poll asked the same voters about the Republican candidate’s priorities.

Political insiders know the 57-year-old Whatley as a former state and national Republican Party chairman. Those who followed the GOP primary earlier this year might know him as President Donald Trump’s personally endorsed choice for the Senate seat.

Given Whatley’s ties to Trump, it might surprise some observers to see that just 74% of those surveyed believe the Republican candidate would be likely to support Trump administration priorities on Capitol Hill. While 80% of Republicans answered “likely,” Democrats (73%) and independents (71%) were less certain.

The youngest voters (62% of 18- to 29-year-olds) were the least likely to answer “likely,” while older voters (80% of 55- to 64-year-olds and 77% of voters 65 and older) were more convinced that Trump’s preferred candidate would support the president’s agenda.

About 89% of those who indicated they plan to vote for Whatley expect him to support Trump, while 74% of Cooper voters have the same expectation.

Cooper won six elections across North Carolina from 2000 to 2020 and has yet to lose a statewide general election. Just 2% of those surveyed in the recent Carolina Journal Poll had never heard of him. Another 8% had no opinion of Cooper. About 47% of those surveyed have a favorable view of the former governor, compared to 43% who answered “unfavorable.”

In contrast, Whatley never has run for statewide office before this year. Even this late in the campaign season, 18% of voters indicate they never have heard of him. Another 13% hold no opinion of the Republican candidate. The combined 31% of voters with no opinion or knowledge of Whatley top the 26% who hold a favorable view of him. Some 42% hold an unfavorable view.

It’s not clear whether policy preferences will play a critical role in a contest that presents such a stark contrast of major-party candidates’ electoral experience and name recognition.

Yet at least some voters will pay less attention to the names and personalities involved. They will focus instead on the important votes Congress will take over the next six years. Choosing Cooper or Whatley to fill the Senate seat now held by Republican Thom Tillis will have a substantial impact for North Carolina and potentially the nation.

The next North Carolina senator could be forced to say yes or no to siding with the Trump administration on major tax, spending, and foreign policy questions. That senator also could be asked to endorse or oppose a major leftward lurch in American policy pushed by DSA.

The latest Carolina Journal Poll offers interesting insights about how prospective voters expect Cooper or Whatley to respond to those critical choices.

Mitch Kokai is senior political analyst for the John Locke Foundation.