With one year until the midterm election, Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper continues to lead in North Carolina’s US Senate race. According to the latest Carolina Journal Poll, a survey of 600 likely voters in North Carolina that was conducted November 9–10 by Harper Polling, Cooper (47.3%) leads former Republican Party Chairman Michael Whatley (38.6%) by 8.7 points. Cooper’s lead is larger than when Carolina Journal last polled in this race in September (4.2 points), but it is similar to Cooper’s lead in August (8.2 points).
Alternatively, when Republican veteran and attorney Don Brown (38%) is tested against Cooper, Cooper’s advantage (48.1%) widens slightly to 10.1 points.
Among independent voters, Cooper maintains a notable 16-point lead over both Whatley and Brown. When comparing the Republican candidates, Whatley (83.4%) performs slightly better with the Republican base than Brown (81.2%).
“Cooper’s lead continues to benefit from strong name recognition among voters,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “If Whatley or Brown want to have a chance in this race, they will need to get in front of voters and raise their own public profile.”
The Democratic advantage also appears in the race for the state legislature. In a generic ballot test for the General Assembly, the race has flipped. While the Republican Party led in September and August, the Democratic Party has overtaken public support for the legislature. Democrats went from being 1.6-points behind Republicans in September to enjoying a 4.1-point lead this month, with 47.3% of voters saying they would vote for a Democratic legislative candidate and 43.2% saying they would vote for a Republican.
Voter sentiment about both the country and the state continues to sour. A majority (55.4%) of respondents say the United States is on the “wrong track,” while 38.3% say it is headed in the “right direction.” This approval for the trajectory of the country has been on a steady decline since last November, when a plurality of 48.3% said America was headed in the right direction.
Self-identified conservatives are the most optimistic, with 71.7% approval for the direction of the country, compared to 21.6% of moderates and 2.9% of liberals.
Self-identified moderates have seen the largest decline in optimism, declining by 15 points since last November. Conservatives experienced a slightly smaller 13.8-point decline in optimism, and liberals experienced a 1.9-point decline.
Perceptions of North Carolina’s direction are similarly bleak, with 47.9% saying the state is on the wrong track and 34.6% saying it is on the right path. This decline in public sentiment is even more dramatic, with a majority of voters (50.1%) having said the state was headed in the right direction last November.
President Donald Trump’s job approval has declined as well, though less dramatically. Overall, 45.7% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 52.8% disapprove — compared to 49.4% approval and 49% disapproval in September. Governor Josh Stein’s approval has declined as well, but he continues to stay above water. Stein’s approval was 35.2 points above his disapproval in March, but that shrank to a 19.4-point margin this month (49.5% approval and 28.9% disapproval).
Voters’ pessimism goes beyond politics and applies to the economy as well. A majority of voters (58.3%) say they are not confident in the US economy, including nearly 37.9% who say they are not confident “at all.” While 39.6% of voters say they are confident in the economy, only 9.2% are “very” confident, compared to 30.4% who are “somewhat” confident.
On a personal level, most North Carolinians describe their household financial situation as “good” (37%) or “fair” (34%), while 17.4% describe it as “poor” or “very poor.” Only 9.5% of voters say they would describe their financial situation as “excellent.”
This month’s poll also asked voters how both the federal and state budget impasses have affected their households. A majority (52.9%) stated that they were impacted by one or both of these situations. Only 5.9% said the state budget delay had the most significant impact on their household, compared to 21.4% who said the federal government shutdown had a greater impact. Around a quarter (25.6%) said both impacted their household equally, and 39.8% said neither affected them.
“There is no doubt that voters are feeling the pinch of high consumer prices, a deeply divided political climate, and an uncertain job market,” continued Bryson. “Elected officials need to work on kitchen-table issues if they want to see an improvement in American morale. Groceries move the ballot box.”
When asked who deserves the most blame for the federal government shutdown, 38% of voters blame Democrats in Congress, while 33.8% blame Republicans. About one in four (24.7%) blame both parties. Independent voters split equally into thirds on whether they blamed Republicans, Democrats, or both.
A majority of voters (53.5%) believe that America imposing tariffs on goods from foreign countries will hurt the national economy, with 38.2% of them confidently stating that tariffs will “definitely” hurt the economy. This compares to 37.7% of voters who believe that tariffs will help the American economy, 22.9% of whom are confident that they will “definitely” help. Less than 2% of voters think tariffs will have no impact on the economy.
When asked, on a personal level, if tariffs will harm their families’ financial situation, fewer voters (19.1%) say tariffs will be helpful, and a slightly greater share (55.8%) believes they will be harmful. The proportion of people who say tariffs will have “no real impact” increases to 16.4% when the focus is switched to the household. Of those who said tariffs will help the economy, 47.3% said they would help their household financial situation, 32.4% said it would have no real impact, and 12% said it would hurt.
Most voters also believe that artificial intelligence (AI) could be harmful. Most voters (56.8%) have a negative impression of AI. Of those, 23.5% said their opinion was “mostly negative” while 33.4% said they were “somewhat concerned.” By comparison, only 27.9% expressed a favorable opinion of AI, with 23.6% stating they were “cautiously optimistic,” and 4.2% stating they felt “mostly positive.” Approximately 12% said they were “neutral.”
In a classroom setting, a plurality of voters (43.5%) said that, when used correctly, AI could be an aid to education. Only 34.5% said AI was a threat to real learning, and 22% said they didn’t know.
