Obama 48, Trump 39
Published 1:55 p.m. today
By Gary Pearce
A new nationwide poll shows that, if they could run against each other in 2028, Barack Obama would beat Donald Trump by a resounding 48-39%.
It’d be a whuppin’.
A North Carolina poll done by the same firm two months ago showed that Obama would beat Trump here by 48-41%.
It’s a clear sign of how unpopular Trump has made himself – just six months before mid-term voting begins.
Stephen Clermont of Change Research, who did both polls, compared the Obama-Trump result to the 2024 popular vote, which Trump won by just over 1%.
Stephen said, “The biggest shifts away from Trump are young men, non-MAGA Republicans, Asian-Americans, and Independents. It is quite extraordinary.”
- Men under 35 voted for Trump by 44-42% in 2024. They’d vote for Obama now by 49-29%, a shift of 22 points.
- Non-MAGA Republicans voted for Trump over Kamala Harris by 82-9%. Now they’d vote Trump 64%-Obama 12%. That’s a 21-point drop for Trump.
- Asian-Americans voted 51-37% for Harris. Now they’d vote for Obama by 56-19%, a 23-point shift.
- Independents said they voted 34-30% for Harris in 2024 (the rest said they voted for a third-party candidate or didn’t vote). Now they prefer Obama by 47-17%, a 26-point change.
The shifts of 20% or more toward Democrats are consistent with results in special elections across the country over the last year.
That’s not a blue tide; it’s a blue tsunami.
The Change Research poll surveyed 2,702 registered voters nationwide April 3-7. Margin of error is 2%.
The question was: “If the U.S. Congress and state legislatures overturned the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution and allowed presidents and former presidents to seek a third term in office, who would you vote for in a 2028 election between: Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate (and) Donald Trump, the Republican candidate.”
Is it time to form the Obama III Committee?
