Obama 48 - Trump 41

Donald Trump’s head might explode if he sees this.

When we drafted our poll, the four of us wondered what would happen in North Carolina if Trump got his wish and could run for a third term in 2028 – and if Barack Obama ran too.

So, we asked this question (Q 20): “If the U.S. Congress and state legislatures overturned the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution and allowed presidents and former presidents to seek a third term in office, who would you vote for in a 2028 election between Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate?”

The result:

Obama 48%

Trump 41%

Not sure 11%

From the crosstabs:

• Independents favored Obama by 53-16%.
• The crucial slice of “movable” voters that the poll found, about 27% of the electorate, said Obama by 42-28%.
• Women preferred Obama by 55-36%; men preferred Trump by 47-39%.
• The younger the voter, the more likely they’d vote for Obama. Under-35 voters picked him by 57-23%; over-65 voters picked Trump by 52-41%.
• Black voters said Obama by 86-5%; White voters favored Trump by 49-40%.

Remember: this is in North Carolina. Trump carried the state – narrowly – three times. Obama won here once and lost once.

There’s no clearer sign of Trump’s unpopularity – and his drag on Republicans this year.