Obama vs Trump in N.C

Donald Trump is coming to eastern North Carolina to campaign for Michael Whatley.

Barack Obama cut an ad endorsing Roy Cooper.

Advantage Cooper.

I say that because our recent poll of Unaffiliated voters statewide asked my favorite question:

“If the U.S. Congress and state legislatures overturned the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution and allowed presidents and former presidents to seek a third term in office, who would you vote for in a 2028 election between Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate?”

Obama won by a landslide: 51-32%.

That’s a 19-point margin - among Unaffiliated voters!

We’ve asked this question three times in polls this year - a statewide poll of all voters in January, a similar poll in August and now this poll of Unaffiliateds.

Obama’s lead has grown every time.

Last January, he led Trump 48-41%.

In August, Obama led 53-36%.

If we asked all voters that question now, Obama’s lead might be 20 points.

We put the question in our separate recent poll of rural voters, where Trump is strongest. But he led Obama by only 47-41% with those voters.

In 2024, Trump carried those rural counties by 58-37% over Kamala Harris. His lead has dropped by 15 points.

Trump’s visit to Greenville won’t help Whatley much. And it may help Congressman Don Davis win reelection in Congressional District 1.

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