On a first name basis

[caption id="attachment_16840" align="alignleft" width="150"] Courtesy Associated Press[/caption]

by Thomas Mills, Politics NC, October 22, 2015.

I don’t usually make too many political predictions because politics is so unpredictable. That said, I’m going to make some predictions about the presidential contest. My guess is when all the dust settles, we’ll have a rather boring campaign pitting two candidates who go by their first names against each other, Jeb! verses Hillary.

While Jeb! seems to be sinking in the polls and losing instead of gaining traction, he’s still got the largest war chest and the most experienced campaign. Modern elections are not sprints. They’re marathons. In 2012, we watched GOP presidential candidates come and go. Herman Cain had his moment in the sun. Newt Gingrich seemed to be relevant again for a brief moment. Rick Perry and his inappropriately named ranch were stars of the show. Rick Santorum’s Holy War made an appearance. Even Ron Paul saw center stage. Ultimately, the GOP went with the most establishment candidate, Mitt Romney. I think the same will happen this year and Jeb! is last cycle’s Mitt. 

Donald Trump may be grabbing everyone’s attention now, but I still don’t think his act is sustainable. I’m not even sure he wants to be there anymore and I’m almost certain he’s going to get bored sooner than later. He’s turned the GOP primary into a reality show where he tries to insult as many people and groups as he can just to see what happens. 

Part of me thinks that Trump cut a deal with Bill Clinton. Can’t you see the conversation? “Hey, Donald, what do you think of Jeb Bush and all those Republican candidates?”

“I think they’re a bunch of clowns. I could do better than any of them. I’d show ‘em how to get some action.”

“Think you could grab the attention of the whole Republican electorate for a few months?” 

“Sure. I can do that. It might even be fun. The Apprentice has about run its course anyhow.”

Ever since then, he’s been doing Stephen Colbert except instead of being a blowhard right-wing pundit, he’s playing a blowhard populist presidential candidate. And the GOP electorate’s not smart enough to realize that he’s making fun of them.

At some point, though, the voters will get the game or Trump will get distracted. However, by the time that happens, most of the GOP candidates will have spent all of their hard-raised money trying to stay relevant. The only one with the cash to stay in the game is Jeb! and his SuperPAC buddies. So, he’ll be the last serious candidate standing when The Donald exits the stage. 

As for the Democratic side, Hillary is about to roll. Biden is out of the way. The Benghazi Committee will fade into oblivion once she’s finished testifying today. Their overblown expectations of bringing down Clinton’s campaign came crashing down with admissions that the whole committee is political, not investigative and that Chairman Trey Gowdy is a less-than-honest broker. Today’s show will be anticlimactic. 

I imagine Sanders will make it to Super Tuesday on March 1 but will not shoot at Hillary and she won’t attack him. After he’s successfully driven the Democratic agenda and secured a solid speaking spot at the convention, he’ll bow out, urging his followers to support Clinton. Martin O’Malley will stick around long enough to be a VP contender but won’t make it much past Iowa or New Hampshire. 

In the end, we’ll have a status quo election, disappointing the activists on both sides of the aisle. We’ll return to what the Clinton campaign knew in the beginning: For all of the gnashing of teeth and criticism of being the corporate Democrat, the women are going to support her. The historic importance of electing the first woman president will settle in and the rancor of this summer and fall will be a distant memory. Finally, the United States will have Madam President.