Parties to battle in counties
Published March 24, 2014
By John Hood
by John Hood, John Locke Foundation and NC SPIN panelist, March 24, 2014.
Because I enjoy watching and analyzing legislative politics, it pains me to say this: for the 2014 election cycle in North Carolina, the most competitive and fateful races will be found at the top and bottom of the ballot — not in state house and senate contests, which probably aren’t going to swing much either way this year.
To say that U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s reelection contest will be momentous is hardly controversial. But my emphasis on races further down the ballot, specifically the county commission seats up for grabs from the mountains to the coast, may surprise you. Let me explain.
Until 2010, Democrats always held a majority of commission seats and controlled most of the state’s 100 boards of county commissioners. In fact, until the advent of modern two-party competition in North Carolina in 1972, Democrats had typically controlled around 90 percent of the state’s county governments, with Republicans holding a mere handful of Piedmont and mountain commissions.
As Republicans began to become competitive in statewide races for governor and U.S. Senate in the 1970s, and then for state legislature in the 1980s and 1990s, the GOP also began to rise as a political force in local government. In 1984, when President Reagan and Sen. Helms won reelection and Jim Martin was elected governor, Republicans passed the 100 mark in commission seats. In 1986, despite losing the U.S. Senate race and a few legislative seats, Republicans gained an astounding 41 commission seats — thanks in part to a sophisticated, well-financed statewide campaign by Gov. Martin to support legislative and local candidates. In 1988, Martin’s reelection coincided with another substantial gain in seats, to 157. The GOP then controlled a third of the state’s county commissions for the first time in history.
The next leap forward was in 1994, when huge Republican gains in Congress and the legislature were accompanied by a 21-seat gain in county commissions. For a while, that proved to be the party’s high-water mark. Local Democrats and Republicans battled it out through the remainder of the 1990s and into the early 2000s, with the GOP holding about 40 percent of commission seats, give or take.
It was the 2010 election that finally broke the Republicans out of that box. They gained 56 commission seats. For the first time ever, the two parties were tied — 50 Democratic-controlled boards and 50 Republican ones (including a county where a conservative independent joined two Republicans to form a majority coalition). In 2012, Republicans gained even more ground. Now they are the majority party, controlling 52 percent of the seats and 54 of the 100 commissions.
Some journalists and political analysts have attempted to explain away the significance of the GOP surge in county politics by arguing that Republican strength lies in sparsely populated rural areas while Democrats control the state’s fast-growing metro areas. The most charitable way to answer this argument is to conclude that the people making it forgot to consult the map. The exact opposite is the truth.
Of the 10 most-populous counties, Republicans have commission majorities in six of them — Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, New Hanover, Gaston, and Union. If you expand the list to include the next 20 counties in population — comprising the suburban counties and smaller metros — the Republican edge is even more pronounced, with majorities in 16 of them.
So in North Carolina?s 30 most-populous counties, comprising nearly three-quarters of the state’s entire population, 22 have Republican commissions. Those commissions govern 65 percent of the state’s urban, suburban, and large-county population. It is in the rural corners of the state — the northeast, the southeast, and mountain counties along the Tennessee border — where Democrats enjoy more success in commission races.
Overall, 63 percent of North Carolinians live in Republican-controlled counties. In 2014, Democrats want to change that. Wake County, for example, will be vigorously contested. On the other hand, Republicans think they can gain additional ground in counties still under Democratic control, such as Buncombe.
Democrats hope to parlay local victories into momentum for the 2016 gubernatorial and legislative races. The scenario isn’t far-fetched. But it’s not a slam-dunk, either, which is why this year’s county commission races may prove to be fascinating.
March 24, 2014 at 10:49 am
Norm Kelly says:
I believe Republicans have won over this period of time because they have expressed old fashioned, conservative, Constitution based ideas. Republicans and, more precisely, conservatives will continue to win elections if their platforms continue to express conservatives ideas. But more importantly, it's not the platforms that count but the implementation. Limited, controlled, fair governing will win the day. Enough voters are seeing that liberal ideas of taxing, spending, expanding government power/control, interfering in individual lives is not the direction for a free country, a free people.
So long as the libs continue to push their standard agenda, and conservatives govern in the opposite direction, conservatives will continue to win and gain more seats. Conservatives need to continue to demonstrate their stark differences with Demoncrat party politicians. We need to stand for freedom, tax fairness, individual control, family values, promoting individual success. When I reference family values, I mean things like the ability of the family to choose where they live, where they send their kids to school, which church they belong to, how they choose to worship their God.
DemocRATs stand for penalizing success, determining for you where your kids go to school, preventing school choice, penalizing success, spending more money than they get, increasing spending on government programs, removing freedom from individuals. Things like the Town of Cary is doing with building a movie theater to compete with privately owned movie theaters at a time when movie theaters are struggling to stay in business. A movie theater that is supported by tax dollars, owned by the government so it may never have to show a profit or break even in order to stay in business. A movie theater where the town's own sign ordinance was violated. Like the Town buying up land & buildings in downtown to support a government run 'opportunity' district. Selling land at a discount to chosen businesses, supplying a discounted/guaranteed mortgage to the chosen business. While other private businesses do everything they can to stay in business. Picking winners and losers is a lib idea and usually results in losses beyond simply the tax money spent on the project. Private business could be the big loser in government ventures into 'private business'. An opportunity district where politicians think that a park will attract people to downtown. A PARK!?! Why would this bring people from outside the district to spend time and money in downtown Cary?
Conservatives need to make changes when they get control. Things like selling off the ABC store system, converting them to private business. Get rid of all those state employees selling alcohol and simply regulate them as any other business. The state will continue to collect tax money from the sale of alcohol, but won't have any of the expense of running the 'business' and paying for those state employees. Employment in the private sector goes up, expenses in the public sector goes down, sales taxes on alcohol will probably stay the same or even go up. This is a win-win for everyone involved. But this is a major win for taxpayers in our state. But this MUST be a conservative idea since the libs will NEVER propose reducing government control, reducing government employees, admitting that this business actually belongs in the private sector and will perform much better in the private sector.
Conservatives at EVERY LEVEL of government need to find ideas like this and run on them. Success is a wonderful thing for freedom lovers!
