Poll tells interesting tariff story among NC Republicans

One might not expect a political voting bloc to offer 77% support for a policy that benefits only 40% percent of its members. But that’s one way of interpreting North Carolina Republicans’ approach to tariffs.

GOP voters’ answers to tariff questions produced noteworthy results in the latest Carolina Journal Poll.

The poll conducted Nov. 9-10 among 600 likely general election voters offered plenty of predictable partisan responses.

While 91% of Republicans approve of President Donald Trump’s job in the White House, 93% of Democrats disapprove. Former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper has 91-92% support from fellow Democrats as he seeks North Carolina’s US Senate seat next year. Meanwhile, 81-83% of Republicans already back either of two lesser-known GOP candidates who are vying to face Cooper.

Some 79% of Republicans believe the country is heading in the right direction, and 92% of Democrats disagree. About 74% of GOP respondents express confidence in the American economy, with 88% of Democrats indicating a lack of confidence. Both questions could be viewed as registering support or opposition to Trump’s policies.

Blame for the recent federal government shutdown produced similar partisan results, with 79% of Republicans blaming congressional Democrats and 68% of Democrats blaming the GOP. Among those with no party affiliation, 33% blamed Democrats, 32% blamed Republicans, and another 32% assigned equal blame to both parties on Capitol Hill.

Responses to two poll questions about tariffs offered an interesting wrinkle, at least among Republicans.

The poll asked voters: “Do you think that the US imposing tariffs – which are taxes on goods or materials from other countries – helps or hurts the national economy?” A follow-up question asked whether tariffs help or hurt “your family’s financial situation.”

Overall, almost 54% of respondents believe tariffs probably or definitely hurt the economy, with 38% saying tariffs probably or definitely help the economy. Less than 2% answered that tariffs have no real impact, while about 7% said they were unsure.

Since Trump touts tariffs repeatedly, it’s no surprise that Democrats and Republicans split on the issue. One tariff opponent told me that the president’s signature accomplishment during this term could be convincing 88% of Democrats that tariffs hurt the economy. Just 6% of North Carolina Democrats believe tariffs help. (We’ll see what happens the next time a Democratic president proposes tariffs.)

In contrast, 77% of Republicans told pollsters that tariffs help the economy, with 16% answering that tariffs hurt us nationally. Just 1% answered that tariffs have no real impact.

When voters reached the next question about tariffs’ personal impact, Democrats stuck closely to their first answer. About 87% said tariffs hurt their family’s finances, with 4% saying tariffs help them.

Republicans registered a much more substantial shift. Just 40% of them answered that tariffs help their families financially, while 25% answered that tariffs have no real impact and 23% said tariffs hurt.

That’s a 37-point gap among Republicans between those who believe tariffs help the national economy and those who see personal household benefits.

Why? Some respondents might have viewed the first tariff question as another opportunity to register support for Trump. The second question allowed them to reflect more clearly the impact tariffs have on their households.

It’s also possible that many Republicans view tariffs’ negative personal impact as a necessary sacrifice to help the country. They feel the pinch when paying more for certain goods, but they believe the higher cost is worth the protection offered to American industries.

This split between tariffs’ national and personal impact wasn’t confined to Republicans.

A solid majority (56%) of independent North Carolina voters think tariffs hurt the economy, but nearly a third (32%) believe they help. When considering personal household impact, the “hurt” answer ticks up a couple of points (58%), while the percentage who believe tariffs help them personally drops to 15%.

As with Republicans, the “no real impact” answer jumps substantially. Only 3% of independents believe tariffs have no national impact, while 20% of them see no impact on their family’s finances.

Among the 38% of North Carolina voters of all political persuasions who believe tariffs help the national economy, fewer than half (47%) see a positive impact for their own family’s finances. Some 32% say they see no real impact on their households, but 12% admit that tariffs hurt them.

Presidential aspirants from both parties actively court North Carolina’s electoral votes every four years. Candidates for Congress need voters’ support every two years. These poll numbers should prompt them to consider carefully the future tariff policies they want to pursue.

Mitch Kokai is senior political analyst for the John Locke Foundation.