Republicans are kidding themselves if they think Cooper will struggle in a Senate race

North Carolina Republicans are straining mightily to convince observers—and perhaps themselves—that Roy Cooper has entered a threatening terra incognita. His long record of victories, they insist, has not prepared him for the challenge of a U.S. Senate campaign. He smoothly proceeded from one win to another for nearly 40 years. But, according to the boastful blusterers pontificating from the squat, brick building on Hillsborough Street, his political life is about to enter a stage of harrowing and undiscovered rigors.

Cooper has not, in fact, run for federal office before. The Obama administration attempted to recruit him to run in 2010, even inviting him to the White House to press their case. He declined, likely protecting himself from a demoralizing defeat. His career in senatorial politics begins now, with two successful terms as governor bedecking his impressive dossier and the full support of Washington Democrats. With a strong advantage in name recognition and broad goodwill from the electorate, Cooper’s prospects of victory appear to be promising.

A senate campaign will pose new challenges for the former governor. Senate elections turn upon a different issues axis than gubernatorial campaigns. Whereas a governor can run, as Cooper did, on everyday pragmatism, Senate candidates must engage with far more polarizing questions about the role of government and the direction of the country. Many North Carolinians who have voted for Cooper in the past lean conservative on these issues. It’s logical to infer that Cooper will receive less crossover support this time than he has in campaigns
for state office.

But Republicans who claim that the more controversial and fraught world of national politics will break Cooper’s magic are overstating their case. Voters in North Carolina have long elected to support conservative Republicans in Senate races even as Democrats overperformed in rural areas when running for governor. But experience from other states shows that governors can retain some measure of crossover appeal even in difficult Senate races. In Tennessee, for example, former Governor Phil Bredesen ran 10 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin when he ran for U.S. Senate in Trump’s first midterm. If Cooper can replicate that delta, he will lead North Carolina Democrats to their most successful landslide victory since 1974, when Attorney General Robert Morgan demolished a Republican opponent infused with the stench of Watergate.

Republicans are attempting to weaken Cooper’s standing by comparing this election to the 1984 defeat of Governor Jim Hunt. But this is a
false analogy, deceptive on two fronts. First, Hunt ran ten full points ahead of presidential candidate Walter Mondale. Do Cooper’s critics really believe that that sort of showing is something that should inspire trepidation in Cooper, whose politics closely resemble Hunt’s? Secondly—and this distinction is absolutely crucial—1984 was a presidential year in which Republicans won North Carolina by 24 points. 2026 will be a midterm year that is likely to favor Democrats. Whereas Hunt was done in by the disaster of the Mondale campaign, Cooper will stand alone at the top of the ticket and be buffeted by the beneficent winds of a pro-Democratic political climate.

In fact, there is an historical analogy far more instructive for the Cooper-Whatley race than Helms’s regrettable victory in 1984. It happened two years later in 1986. The ‘86 Senate election was almost eerie in its resemblance to the campaign that is taking shape for 2026. In 1986, a strong Democratic former governor (Terry Sanford) defeated a colorless Republican (Jim Broyhill) in a Democratic midterm year. 2026 could easily recapitulate the outcome of 1986 with Cooper as the seasoned Democratic horse defeating his uncharismatic GOP opponent, with an anti-GOP backlash aiding his effort. Thus, the proper historical analogy should concern Republicans, not excite them.

If I were to assign a “rating” to this race’s probable outcome, I would likely choose “tilts Democratic.” Cooper is not the overwhelming favorite, and frankly couldn’t be in a state where every race starts as a coin flip. But this race will not make him “miserable,” as one Republican mouthpiece blustered. He is a proven vote-getter with a strong individual brand running in a year that is likely to favor his party. Republicans should reflect on Cooper’s considerable strengths rather than loudly taunt him for a trial that is unlikely to be as harrowing as they emphatically insist.