Republicans embracing libertarian priorities

by James Hohmann, Politico, September 11, 2013.

A new poll confirms a libertarian renaissance in 2013.

FreedomWorks commissioned a national survey of registered voters last month, shared first with POLITICO, that finds 78 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents self-identify as fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

It’s not that Republicans are suddenly self-identifying as “libertarians” and devouring Ayn Rand novels, but more that they seem to be embracing underlying libertarian priorities and views about the role of government.

The GOP dominated politics for a generation with a coalition of libertarians, social conservatives and defense hawks that Ronald Reagan successfully cobbled together in 1980. The tea party-affiliated FreedomWorks argues in a 23-page report that the so-called three-legged stool has become lopsided.

The poll asked Republican voters what they are most interested in: 40 percent said “individual freedom through lower taxes and reducing the size and scope of government,” 27 percent picked “traditional values” and 18 percent chose a “strong national defense.”

Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, who ran the poll, said she’s seeing a spike in voters who feel the government is too expensive, invasive and expansive.

“The perfect storm is being created between the NSA, the IRS, the implementation of Obamacare and now Syria,” she said. “People are looking at the government more suspiciously. They’re looking with deeper scrutiny and reasonable suspicion.”

FreedomWorks, which is among the groups leading the controversial push to defund the federal health care law even if it risks a government shutdown, argues that GOP voters have limited appetite for grand bargains that would raise taxes. Two-thirds of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they want their member of Congress to “keep their promises and stick to principles” as opposed to “compromise in a bipartisan way to get things done.”

“From Obamacare on down, sticking to principle is where the Republican base is today,” said David Kirby, vice president of opinion research at FreedomWorks. “It’s an example of how off the Republican establishment is from their base.”

Social issues have become less salient to GOP voters: 41 percent said gay marriage is not one of their top 10 issues. Asked about abortion, about one-third said it is one of the top three issues they care about; another third said it is not in the top three but somewhere in the top 10 and the final third said it is not one of their top 10 concerns.

One-quarter of Republicans self-identified as “libertarian” or “lean libertarian.” Of Republicans, 42 percent view the term “libertarian” favorably and 10 percent don’t know it.

The poll surveyed all voters, not just those on the right, and overall 27 percent said they didn’t know enough to offer an opinion of libertarianism. About 40 percent of 18-to-32-year-olds view the word “libertarian” favorably, although about a third don’t know what it means.

Told that libertarians generally believe individuals should be free to do as they like as long as they don’t hurt others and that the government should keep out of people’s day-to-day lives, 58 percent of the full national sample said they agree.

A slight majority, 52 percent, said government should not promote any particular set of values, compared with 40 percent who think government should promote “traditional values.”

Only 17 percent said they think they will personally be better off under Obamacare, including just one-third of Democrats. The survey found 49 percent overall oppose the law.

Kirby said the poll offers a measure of validation for a trio of libertarian-leaning Republican senators: Mike Lee of Utah, Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky.

The release of the poll comes as Congress returns from its August recess to confront a host of major fiscal fights. When it comes to the debt ceiling, eight in 10 Republicans surveyed said they oppose increasing it, and three-quarters of all registered voters polled believe politicians are “exaggerating the risks” of not increasing it. Just over half of voters agreed with the statement that fights over the debt ceiling keep recurring because “Obama and the Democrats aren’t serious about cutting spending.”

Looking ahead to the 2014 primaries, 55 percent of Republican voters said they are more likely to vote for a candidate who has “stronger principles” and 34 percent said they would instead choose “a candidate who has more political experience and party leaders say is more likely to win.”

Conway, the pollster, called herself “astonished” by that margin.

“You’d think Republican voters, more than anybody, would want to win, but they’ve been down that road of ‘electability’ before,” she said, citing Mitt Romney and Bob Dole. “Voters aren’t asking themselves who can win. They’re asking who can lead … Republican voters in particular are fatigued with this false promise of electability.”

There is continuing disillusionment among voters with both parties. Asked which party can be trusted more to reform government, 40 percent said neither and 61 percent said “economic policies coming out of Washington” are hurting more than helping.

The poll also challenges some widely held perceptions of the millennial generation. The survey oversampled younger people to get a better sense of the difference between the views of those ages 18 to 24, many of whom have not had full-time jobs, and 25-to-32-year-olds who have spent a few years in the working world. Asked if they favor “smaller government with fewer services but lower taxes,” 51 percent of the youngest group said yes compared with 64 percent of the slightly older group.

The poll shows pessimism, cynicism and mistrust among the young crowd. Two-thirds said their generation will be worse off than their parents’. Sizable numbers reported that they are delaying buying their own home, saving for retirement, going back to school, starting a family and getting married because of the current state of the economy.

Three-quarters of the 18-to-32-year-olds, however, said they believe current economic conditions can be changed by the federal government in Washington.

Conway argues that neither party has a corner on younger voters.

“There’s no realignment to progressivism,” she said.

The polling company, inc./WomanTrend interviewed 1,000 registered voters on behalf of FreedomWorks from July 29 to Aug. 5. The interviews were conducted by live interviewers; 15 percent of respondents were on cellphones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.