Six Statistics North Carolinians should know
Published April 5, 2018
By John Hood
by John Hood, syndicated columnist and NC SPIN panelist, April 4, 2018.
Since 2010, when voters put Republicans in charge of most state governments across the United States, North Carolina became one of about a half-dozen states where conservative reformers have frequently — and sometimes spectacularly — faced off with progressives in ways that have attracted significant national attention.
In 2011, the new GOP-majority General Assembly defeated then-Gov. Bev Perdue’s attempt to re-impose a massive sales-tax increase. Two years later, Republican lawmakers and then-Gov. Pat McCrory initiated a multi-year process of reducing and reforming North Carolina’s tax and regulatory burdens.
At the same time, North Carolina leaders began changing the way the state budgeted its dollars, funded its roads, delivered education, and administered public assistance. Most conservatives here and around the country cheered. Progressives fought, fumed, and forecast doom.
There isn’t enough space here to adjudicate all the resulting policy disputes. But I can give readers a peek at how North Carolina conservatives tend to evaluate our policies. Specifically, here are six key statistics we’ve been watching, and why:
• Rainy-day Reserves: No matter what side of the political spectrum you’re on, you should want state politicians to budget against worse-case scenarios, rather than count on rosy scenarios. Both meteorological and fiscal storms are inevitable. According to the latest Pew Research Center study, North Carolina has a full month’s worth of state spending saved in our rainy-day account, ranking us 14th-best in the nation.
• Highway Cost-Effectiveness: While progressives seem to equate the value of government programs with how much taxpayers are forced to spend on them, conservatives place a higher priority on getting the biggest bang for the buck. They know that empirical research doesn’t show any consistent link between state expenditures and economic progress, but the latter is often associated with higher levels of service quality or outcomes.
So, for example, we want North Carolina to have good-quality roads and bridges, not necessarily to spend the most tax money on transportation. According to the Reason Foundation’s latest state-by-state comparison, North Carolina ranks 14th in the cost-effectiveness of our highway system. Thanks in part to policy reforms, we best the national average in both rural pavement condition and urban congestion.
• Education Cost-Effectiveness: I wish there was a similar set of rigorous, annually updated national comparisons on school spending and outcomes. According to a U.S. Chamber of Commerce study published in 2014, however, North Carolina ranked 8th in the nation when it came to the ratio between student performance on independent tests and per-pupil expenditures.
• Tax Competitiveness: North Carolina’s tax reforms have yet to be fully implemented, but their effects are already evident. According to the Tax Foundation’s State Business Tax Climate Index, North Carolina currently ranks 11th, up from 41st before tax reform began in 2013. Conservatives follow this statistic because, unlike state spending, state taxes do exhibit a statistically significant (and negative) relationship with economic growth.
• Economic Growth: Since 2012, the price-adjusted annual rate of growth in North Carolina’s gross domestic product has averaged 2.5 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s the 13th-fastest growth rate in the nation. Some of our regional competitors have outpaced us here, at least so far, but keep in mind that they have usually been governed by conservatives longer than we have.
• Labor Market Improvement: When it comes to unemployment, most people tend to look at the “headline” rate — which is 4.5 percent in North Carolina at the moment. That measure leaves some important people out, however: discouraged workers who’ve given up looking for jobs; marginally attached workers who are currently moving, getting retrained, or tending to family emergencies; and part-time workers who’d rather have a full-time position but can find one.
If you count them all, North Carolina’s “U-6 unemployment” rate is 8.2 percent, down from 16.3 percent in 2012. That’s the biggest improvement in a state labor market in the South, and the 6th-biggest in the nation.
Conservatives recognize that North Carolina continues to face many challenges. But we see progress, and celebrate it. Now you know why.
John Hood (@JohnHoodNC) is chairman of the John Locke Foundation and appears on “NC SPIN,” broadcast statewide Fridays at 7:30 p.m. and Sundays at 12:30 p.m. on UNC-TV.
https://www.carolinajournal.com/opinion-article/six-statistics-carolinians-should-know/
April 7, 2018 at 2:24 pm
Norm Kelly says:
And with Demoncrats, such as Wiley Nickel, running as true left-wing zealots, its likely conservatives/Republicans will retain majority control of our Legislature.
Those demoncrats, such as Wiley, who are honest enough to run as alt-left liberals, promising they will raise taxes, they will increase the cost of education by promising to raise teacher pay ABOVE the national average, and promising to increase regulation on businesses, will demonstrate quite clearly that they will bring our state backwards to a slower economy, higher unemployment, and higher poverty rates. Imagine, forcing businesses to pay $15 per hour to unqualified, unskilled labor for no reason other than to make alt-left zealots feel good. What high school student deserves this much money on their first job? How will this negatively affect fast food outlets, mom&pop shops, and various other businesses? How many minimum wage jobs actually support a family of four? (the alt-left idea, not mine)
What part of national average teacher pay is relevant? Does this bogus number compare ALL aspects of teacher pay? How about the cost of living in other areas compared to NC? How about the cost of benefits provided by NC compared to other areas? How about the tax rates paid by teachers in other areas as compared to NC? These and other factors determine whether teacher take home is on par with the rest of the nation. Just like most other topics liberal, this bogus number is meaningless.
If some liberal demon pays a company huge amounts of money to move or expand here, how does that affect the economic impact of that business increase? Does the average liberal even consider how the bribe affects the general economic impact on the state or local economy? Of course they don't! They only care that they get to pick & choose winners and losers, decide which are 'good' companies and which aren't, which companies should be rewarded and which shouldn't. I'm willing to bet it also comes down to which companies either donate or promise to donate to alt-left pols! Kinda like the payoff to Roy for the east coast pipeline that wasn't a bribe.
Raising taxes rarely, if ever, improves a 'local' economy. Increased gov't regulation rarely, if ever, increases 'local' business. Artificial increases in the cost of doing business rarely, if ever, offsets the negative impact to the 'local' economy (think minimum wage). (i put 'local' in quotes because it means the city/county region as well as the whole state)
What area of the nation controlled by libs can alt-left pols such as Wiley point to that demonstrates their policies are better than what NC is currently doing? For example, how has Illinois massive tax & regulation increases IMPROVED the economy in the state, improved unemployment numbers, and encouraged business to move/expand there? Where 'teacher pay' is higher than NC, can demon pols point to an improved education system as compared to NC? Are graduation rates higher where teachers are paid a higher initial wage? Are test scores demonstrably better in higher wage states? Are businesses moving to or expanding in areas where artificially high minimum wages have been forced on the local economy? In areas where 'soda' taxes have been implemented, has this had a positive or negative impact on local businesses? In areas, such as NY, where salt shakers are forcibly removed from restaurant tables, has health generally improved and have customers been happier without salt being available? Even silly rules such as the salt stuff has an impact, and gives more control to lib pols, and takes power/control away from individuals?
How will alt-left wing policies, such as those promoted by Wiley & his ilk, improve life for the majority of North Carolinians? How will these alt-left, return-to-the-past, policies of Wiley-ites improve economic opportunity for minorities and gays (both supposed important groups for lib pols). How do alt-left policies of Wiley-ites pit one group of voters against other groups, rather than uniting all citizens of NC?
And which Wiley-type lib has defined what 'their fair share' means? Cuz even on Wiley's website he does not define. But he is not alone, cuz not a single left-wing zealot who uses this bogus, meaningless term has ever defined it. They just KNOW that 'the rich' (also undefined) should pay more, and 'the poor' should receive more gov't benefits!
What do alt-left zealots bring to the table for the majority? As opposed to what they bring for themselves.
April 8, 2018 at 2:02 pm
David B Teague says:
Instead the GOP majority GA cut the income taxes for the wealthy and imposed massive sales taxes on EVERYONE ELSE. Sales taxes are regressive, just as the GOP likes, hitting the poor hardest, and middle income next.
